AFT Bracketology – 2/27

As proposed on Friday, the bubble became ever-so-slightly more clear this weekend. I’ll have more on that after the jump, but here’s your bracket for this Monday:

Last Four In: Northwestern, West Virginia, Texas, St. Joseph’s
First Four Out: Dayton, Colorado State, Arizona, Illinois
Next Four Out: South Florida, VCU, NC State, Minnesota

Now, some thoughts:

The bubble is still terrible, but at least it makes sense now. Your last team in: a 19-11 squad from the Atlantic 10 with three losses to teams ranked 101 or higher and no top 100 road wins. But hey, they beat Temple at home this week and I guess that’s good enough for now. By process of elimination, St. Joe’s defeated Dayton earlier this season, Colorado State still has some work to do, and I’m not going to allow myself to put three teams in from a pathetic Pac-12.

Regional changes. I decided to send Kansas to the West and Duke to the Midwest this time around because it makes more sense geographically and in terms of travel expenses for each school. Just a minor change of note.

Wichita freaking State, because I can’t talk about this team enough. Their only loss in the last two months? A triple-overtime thriller to Drake. Said loss? Avenged, and in style with a 23-point win in the season finale. These Shockers have no weakness that can be exploited easily, and I’d be killing myself to not put them in the Elite Eight come tournament time unless they get completely jobbed on their road to New Orleans.

To change it up, here’s some different awards from Friday’s edition.

Easiest road to the Final Four for a top seed. None of them are obviously easy, but I’d give the edge to Syracuse, who probably won’t face someone that can really slow them down until maybe the Elite Eight. The bottom half of their bracket is a mess with Baylor falling fast and Saint Louis being a very overlooked 7 seed that could pull an upset or two, so this could end up being a very easy road for the Orangemen.

First-round upset I’d pick without hesitation. 12 seed Long Beach State over 5 seed Louisville. Yes, Louisville’s a very good defensive team, but they’re one of the most repulsive teams to watch in the nation offensively. They turn it over quite often (21.5% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers, or an average of around 15 per game on 68 possessions) and they aren’t particularly adept at picking up rebounds on defense, either. Look for the Cardinals to exit March Madness early for the second year in a row if they draw a mid-major like Long Beach or Middle Tennessee.

Your new favorite mid-major, based on pure offensive enjoyment. Last year (for most of us), it was Oakland. This year, it’s the Iona Gaels. Most likely, you haven’t seen this team play, and that’s a shame, for they’ve quietly been a blast to watch offensively. They average 71 possessions per game (22nd in the nation) and they’re quite efficient, putting up 83.4 points per game and being the fourth-best shooting team in the nation. Much like Oakland last year, their upset potential completely depends on matchup, but if they draw the right opponent (Oakland didn’t last year, drawing the worst possible opponent in Texas), you might see this team make the second weekend and maybe even a Sports Illustrated cover.

That’s all for now, but with basketball season heating up, this is the first of three bracketology posts you’ll see this week, along with a conference tournament preview sometime this week as well. Leave any questions or comments on here or Tweet them to me at @wwarren9.