Will’s Bracket: South Region

To make up for the lack of college basketball posts over the weekend, I’ll be making several posts this week leading up to and during the NCAA Tournament. Before we start, here’s the complete bracket if you haven’t seen it. Today, we’ll be previewing the first two regions on the bracket, the South and East regions (the East preview to come a little bit later in the day). Game-by-game predictions and an overall outlook will follow. Here goes nothing!

South Region

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky – Thursday, March 15, 6:45 PM ET, TBS

I’m not going to spend much time on this, because it’s pretty obvious who’s going to win. However, let’s take some time to appreciate the incredible story of Western Kentucky, who started this season 5-14, fired head coach Ken McDonald, and came all the way back to win the Sun Belt at 15-18. To top it off, they could play the best team in the field (and the state, obviously) in Kentucky. It won’t be pretty, but national TV time makes a good story even better.

Prediction: Kentucky 83, MVSU/WKU 46

(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut – Thursday, March 15, 9:15 PM ET, TBS

I heard UConn described perfectly by Andy Glockner earlier this week: the 9-seed the 8-seed isn’t scared to face but the 1-seed is. UConn might be the most inconsistent team in America, with Shabazz Napier trying (and mostly failing) to be their Kemba Walker by taking every available shot. You can appreciate him having way more heart than anyone else on the team, but it isn’t exactly helping. 9 seeds with UConn’s profile (fewer than three straight NCAA Tournament appearances and a scoring margin of six points or less) are 6-14 all-time. I’ll take my chances with the Cyclones.

Prediction: Iowa State 72, UConn 67

(5) Wichita State vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth – Thursday, March 15, 7 PM ET, CBS

Let’s be honest: conference tournaments just suck sometimes, because Wichita State is a one-point loss away from being a 3 seed. To boot, their foe is another outstanding mid-major squad in the VCU Rams, who proved their worth last year during the incredible Final Four run. Shaka Smart’s team finds itself overmatched and outgunned yet again, and you can’t just make it up with ridiculous three-point shooting against this Shockers squad.

Prediction: Wichita State 75, VCU 64

(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State – Thursday, March 15, 9:30 PM ET, CBS

Reminds you of a certain other game involving NMSU and a Big Ten squad from 2010, doesn’t it? I feel like with a different matchup (say, Belmont) this would be an easy upset pick for an overrated Indiana squad, but New Mexico State doesn’t really bring a lot that’s desirable to the table. They did beat New Mexico on the road way back in November, but then lost to them at home by 20 a month later. Indiana has some qualities of an upset victim and NMSU some of the upsetee, but it’s tough to see a way this one happens.

Prediction: Indiana 78, New Mexico State 69

(6) Nevada-Las Vegas vs. (11) Colorado – Thursday, March 15, 9:55 PM ET, TruTV

As a sidenote, this is the one time of the year you or I will be watching TruTV unless you really love Operation: Repo, so check your local listings/cable box/what-have-you to ensure you know what channel number you’ll be looking for on Thursday and Friday. For the actual game, UNLV has been very impressive this year…when at home. The Runnin’ Rebels lost their last four home games and lost a close battle to New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. However, Colorado did absolutely nothing of note before winning an upset-filled Pac-12 Conference Tournament, so…

Prediction: UNLV 73, Colorado 63

(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State – Thursday, March 15, 7:15 PM ET, TruTV

Remember North Dakota State and Ben Woodside’s near-massive upset of Kansas in the 2009 NCAA Tournament? Alright, you probably don’t (Tennessee/Oklahoma State was on at the same time), but Woodside dropped 38 on KU’s defense and nearly stole a huge victory for his team, eventually falling 84-74. Fast-forward to 2012 and we’re looking at what’s pretty much a copy/paste of that game: huge underdog with one outstanding player (SDSU’s Nate Wolters, who is having a season much like Kemba Walker’s in 2011) against a Big 12 powerhouse. This time, though, it feels different: Scott Drew’s a good coach, but he’s had NBA talent at Baylor and hasn’t done anything with it outside of an Elite Eight run fueled by one of the luckiest draws ever (14, 11, and 10 seeds). What’s scary is that South Dakota State meets every qualification for a 14 seed shocker (high scoring squad with momentum) and Baylor every qualification for a 3 seed victim (average margin of victory, so-so winning percentage, coach with little to no deep tourney experience). I’ll play it safe here, but don’t be surprised if Nate Wolters becomes a household name with an upset of the Baylor Bears.

Prediction: Baylor 82, South Dakota State 78

(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier – Friday, March 16, 9:30 PM ET, CBS

The story of Xavier is well-known at this point: completely unstoppable until a very ill-advised brawl with Cincinnati derailed their season and they had to survive and advance in the Atlantic 10 Tournament just to make the Big Dance. That’s what makes these Musketeers so interesting, though: the potential is still there and Tu Holloway is still one of the nation’s best guards in a great backcourt. Notre Dame will have a severe height disadvantage – they’ve been running on a four-guard lineup for most of the year – and Xavier shouldn’t have much trouble forcing Notre Dame to use the outside shot, which they’ve been pretty miserable at (235th in the nation in three-point percentage).

Prediction: Xavier 71, Notre Dame 62

(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh – Friday, March 16, 7:00 PM ET, CBS

Games like these are always the least interesting to cover/write about, because there’s little to no chance of an upset and it feels like a two-hour stretch of boredom where you watch the big-league squad rip the little team to shreds, eventually winning by 25 or thereabouts. That’s the most positive thing you’ll see about Duke in any article this week, by the way.

Prediction: Duke 85, Lehigh 61