Know Your Enemy: Florida Gators

The Vols will look to end a nine year losing streak to the Florida Gators this Saturday. And this may be the best chance they’ve had in quite some time. PHOTO: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Who: Florida Gators — Gainesville, FL

Distance From Knoxville: 544 miles

Head coach: Will Muschamp (4th season, 24-17, 14-12 SEC)

Conference: SEC

2014 Record: 2-1

Ranking: N/A

All time series: Florida leads 24-19

Last meeting: The Gators won in Gainesville last season, 31-17

Leading Passer: Jeff Driskel — 636 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs

Leading Rusher: Matt Jones — 49 carries, 258 yards, 2 TDs

Leading Receiver: Demarcus Robinson — 23 catches, 353 yards, 3 TDs

The Vols are no stranger to the Florida Gators, and when they meet in Neyland Stadium this Saturday, it will be the 44th time the two have faced off. What’s different is when the two meet: This marks the latest into the regular season the Vols and Gators have matched up since the events of September 11th moved the 2001 game back to December. It also marks the first time since that season that Vols have not opened the SEC season against the Gators.

As almost every Vol fan knows by now, the Gators are on a 9-game winning streak against Tennessee in the series, dating back to a game-winning James Wilhoit field goal that gave the Vols their last victory against the Gators in 2004. It marks the longest winning streak in the series since the Vols opened up the series with 10 consecutive victories from 1916-1953.

Since that 2004 victory, the Gators have beaten the Vols by an average of 15.3 points per game and have dominated in the running game in almost every meeting. Couple that with some of the best Florida defenses in school history, and the Gators have owned the Vols for nearly a decade.

What makes this match-up any different from the previous nine? Well, a lot.

For starters, the Gators aren’t the offensive juggernaut they were for most of those 9-straight wins. While the stats claim they possess a serviceable offense (ranking 7th in the SEC in both rushing and passing yards per game), deeper investigation reveals otherwise.

Florida’s numbers are skewed by a blowout win against Eastern Michigan and a 3 overtime affair against Kentucky. When they went against Alabama, their numbers plummeted when they gained only 200 total yards of offense against the Crimson Tide. Their usually stout defense has looked vulnerable as well.

The Gators gave up 449 yards through the air to Alabama, and while that might be more likely from the poised fifth-year senior QB the Tide possess, what’s more alarming for Florida is the 369 they gave up to Kentucky’s sophomore QB. Imagine what a healthy and upright Justin Worley can do.

Florida’s passing offense runs through sophomore receiver Demarcus Robinson, but once again, the numbers are skewed here as well. He easily leads the team with 23 receptions and 353 yards, but 15 of those receptions came in the 3 OT game against Kentucky. There is no clear second option on the team, however, as the player with the second-most receptions on the team, Clay Burton, has 12 catches.

Aside from passing defense (where the Vols are much better statistically than the Gators), the two teams are fairly evenly matched in almost every other defensive category. The one category that has the largest discrepancy and is the most telling is the defense’s ability to get off the field on 3rd down. The Vols rank 1st in the SEC, holding teams to just a 20.75% conversion rate. The Gators: dead last in the SEC, allowing teams to convert 45.65% of the time.

The one area the Gators have consistently dominated and where the game has been won in this series is in the running game. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor spearhead a solid rushing attack, but after facing Todd Gurley in Athens, GA, the Vols likely won’t face a test that tough again until Alabama comes calling.

The Vols may finally have the advantage in the running game thanks to former 5-star recruit and freshman phenom Jalen Hurd. Last week against Georgia, Hurd ran for 119 yards, the most by a Tennessee freshman since Jamal Lewis in the SEC Championship Game in 1997. If fellow freshman Derrell Scott can provide good support or if senior Marlin Lane can finally find his groove, the Vols should finally be able to out-gain the Gators on the ground.

Florida’s head coach Will Muschamp is fighting for his job after a 4-8 campaign in 2013, and this game is about as much of a must-win as an early October game can be. It’s also a must-win for a Tennessee program starving for relevancy after 4 consecutive losing seasons and 9-straight losses to one of their most hated rivals.

This game is as close to a toss-up as this series has seen in quite some time. The Gators may be the lowest they’ve been in terms of talent since before Steve Spurrier led them, and the Vols are clearly on the rise. The crowd at Neyland Stadium should be one of the loudest in recent history, and with a sold out crowd expected, the Gators will have to fight for all four quarters if they want to survive and extend their streak to 10 games. The Vols will do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen, though.

All game tats via cfbstats.com unless and all series stats via collegefootball.bz. noted otherwise