Tennessee basketball: Vols aren’t out of 2020 NCAA Tournament race yet

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 31: Jordan Bowden #23 of the Tennessee Volunteers shoots a layup during the game between the Tusculum Pioneers and the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena on October 31, 2018 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 31: Jordan Bowden #23 of the Tennessee Volunteers shoots a layup during the game between the Tusculum Pioneers and the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena on October 31, 2018 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images) /
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Despite a bad loss at the Arkansas Razorbacks, Tennessee basketball still has an outside shot at the Big Dance. The Volunteers aren’t out of it just yet.

Yes, they should not have lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks by 17 points. Tennessee basketball revealed some real concerns on Wednesday with numerous mistakes on the inside and their inability to live up to a Rick Barnes trademark: play defense.

However, Arkansas is much better than their 18-10 record and 6-9 SEC record. This team is a top 25-caliber team when Isaiah Joe plays, and they are 2-0 since his return. So they would always be tough to beat in Fayetteville.

Meanwhile, despite being 15-13 and 7-8 in the SEC, Tennessee basketball still could build an NCAA Tournament resume. We said the Vols had to win three of their final four games and beat all the bad teams in the SEC Tournament to make the bubble.

Well, by losing to Arkansas, they just have to win their final three. Okay, that’s almost certainly not happening. Rick Barnes’ team going into Lexington to beat the Kentucky Wildcats is an extremely unlikely scenario.

However, it’s not crazy to think the Vols can’t win their other two games. They definitely can beat the Florida Gators in Knoxville on Saturday. Meanwhile, a team that was leading the Auburn Tigers by 15 points in the second half on the road can certainly beat them at home for their final regular season game of the year.

So winning two of their final three is a realistic shot. That falls right in line with what the RPI is projecting of them, and it would put them at No. 64 there. Right now, they are No. 73 in the RealTime RPI. However, they are slightly better in the NET rankings at No. 70. And they are No. 59 in the ESPN BPI.

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Taking all that into account, reaching the mid-60s to mid-50s by winning their final two games at home sends the Vols into the SEC Tournament with a chance to make a run. They don’t even have to win it. Should they make it to Saturday, they will have at least scored one more quality win.

Is that possible? Well, people are forgetting that Tennessee basketball does have some veterans in Yves Pons, Jordan Bowden and John Fulkerson. Bowden’s shot is finally returning, and Pons and Fulkerson are finally realizing how to be effective down low.

Santiago Vescovi is inconsistent, and Josiah-Jordan James is still trying to get fully healthy. But both guys can play, and Uros Plavsic has finally shown some promise. As a result, even after that bad loss, there was some promise of things coming together.

Yes, those things could end up being a big deal with just a few games left. Barnes put the Vols in good position to potentially make the tournament with just 20 wins simply due to the tough schedule he has put in front of his team.

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Given that fact, Tennessee basketball winning two of their final three and making it to Saturday would put them right at 19 wins. Getting 20 would be them making it to Sunday in the SEC Tournament or winning at Kentucky and making it to Saturday. Either way, that makes them a lock. Reaching 19 wins, though, puts them on the bubble. And that’s still very possible.