Before the start of the season, almost no one outside of Knoxville gave Tennessee football much of a chance to push for a trip to the College Football Playoff. With Nico Iamaleava leaving town, how things were going to look on offense was fully up in the air.
Fast forward to present time and the Vols are averaging 51 points per game and Joey Aguilar has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC - maybe even the country. Tennessee is on a bye this week, but Josh Heupel and Co. are 4-1 on the year and ranked No. 15 in the land.
Joey Aguilar's take on Tennessee's offense should be a warning for the rest of SEC
With things looking so great thus far for the orange, it sure looks like Tennessee will be in the CFP hunt later this year. However, some things need to go their way. Per ESPN, the Vols currently have a 30 percent chance to get back to the Playoff for the second consecutive year:
Top 20 teams with the highest chance to make the College Football Playoff after Week 5🏆
— On3 (@On3sports) October 1, 2025
(via @ESPN) https://t.co/CB9MU59j3o pic.twitter.com/QIzT5y4wXU
Tennessee football holds a 30 percent chance per ESPN to make the CFP
Hey, no one should sneeze at that number, as the Vols are hoping to land one of the final 12 spots to fight for a natty. Had the Vols taken care of business against Georgia and not suffered a heartbreaking loss, they might be over 50 percent.
However, that loss has been flushed and the full focus is going to be on taking down Arkansas on Oct. 11 at Neyland Stadium. Then, a road matchup in Tuscaloosa is going to be on the way against the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide.
With a win, the Vols are going to do themselves a major favor. A loss, however, is going to make the CFP goal much tougher to reach. There's going to be a lot on the line for that meeting with Kalen DeBoer and his players. We can't get ahead of ourselves, however, as Heupel is taking things week by week. Next up is Arkansas and Sam Pittman. Oh sorry, we mean Bobby Petrino, which is still super weird to say.