Tennessee Basketball’s Upset Over Kentucky Puts Vols in Great Position for NCAA Tournament

Tennessee basketball’s huge upset over the No. 4 ranked Kentucky Wildcats Tuesday night puts the Volunteers in great shape to make the NCAA Tournament.

To many fans, this may seem extremely premature. Tennessee basketball is currently only 11-9 and 4-4 in the SEC.

Nobody has even discussed the Vols getting to the NCAA Tournament.

But a look deeper into this team and how the selection committee picks at-large bids, the Vols are actually in great shape.

A look at the history of the selection committee shows that they rely heavily on the RPI for their tournament selections. They usually combine that with who is playing better at the end of the season.

But with the RPI, you see teams that played a tough schedule and have quality wins get rewarded. One year, the Georgia Bulldogs got in with a 16-14 record due to their strength of schedule alone.

So let’s bring that back to Tennessee.

Coming into Tuesday night’s game, they were No. 63 in the RPI despite only being 9-9 by the ratings’ standards because of their No. 12 ranked strength of schedule.

All nine of their losses came to teams in the Top 100 of the RPI, eight of them came to teams in the Top 50, and six came to teams in the Top 25.

They also had three wins against Top 100 RPI teams. So Tennessee basketball had no bad losses and three decent victory.

But this team needed a quality win, and it still hadn’t gotten one against a Top 50 RPI team.

With that changing Tuesday night, the Vols all of a sudden are in great shape in the RPI.

Being No. 63 in the RPI with the No. 12 ranked strength of schedule squarely puts you on the bubble.

Adding a win over a Top 5 RPI team that was 17-2 before playing you is certain to shoot you up in the rankings.

And all of a sudden, the Vols go from being a bubble team to, yes, being actually in the tournament if the season ends today despite being just 11-9.

That’s why playing a tough schedule is always desirable in basketball.

The best part of all of this, though, is the Vols aren’t done.

This weekend, they host the Kansas State Wildcats. This is a 15-5 team with a Top 50 RPI ranking, so it’s another chance for the Vols to beef up their resume if they can take care of business and pull out a win.

Then they’ll have five Top 100 wins, two elite quality wins, and a 12-9 record with what is certain to be a Top five strength of schedule.

So beating unranked Kansas State and home this weekend puts them in the driver’s seat.

The strength of schedule ranking won’t drop, either. Tennessee plays only three teams outside of the Top 100 the rest of the way. And of their 11 games left, including Kansas State, five are in the Top 50 of the RPI.

They also have to play Kentucky and South Carolina again, both of whom are in the Top 20.

In reality, the Vols just need 16 wins to get to the NCAA Tournament given this schedule. They already have 11. So if they win their three games against teams out of the Top 100, which are Missouri, LSU, and Mississippi State, all they have to do is steal two more.

Vanderbilt, whom they already beat, is still up, and this time the game will be at home. And Alabama is another winnable game the Vols have at home.

Auburn is winnable, even if it’s on the road.

And they also have Ole Miss and Georgia at home, two winnable games that would give the Vols more quality victories.

Yes, Tennessee basketball fans can start talking about this now. By beating Kentucky, they have gotten the signature victory needed to sell themselves to the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

The schedule strength will be heavily in their favor at the end of the year.

So all they have to do now is focus on taking care of business in winnable games. And as a result, they have as great a chance as anybody to reach the Big Dance in March.