SEC Basketball Power Rankings
By Will
SEC basketball isn’t anything special this year, but it’s always fun to check in from time to time and see what teams are at the top of the league and what teams are absolute embarrassments. It’s time for the first edition of the weekly SEC Basketball Power Rankings.
This week, I’ve decided that it may be easier to skip a true 1-12 ranking group because 12 isn’t a low enough number to describe how utterly awful Georgia or South Carolina are and first place isn’t a good enough description of how Kentucky is dominating the SEC right now.
We’ll break the teams up into groups, starting with the worst of the worst.
These Teams Are Bad and You Should Feel Bad: Georgia and South Carolina
South Carolina finally erased the goose egg from the win column, squeaking out a 56-54 victory over Alabama on Wednesday thanks to far and away their best defensive output in SEC play (0.905 points per possession allowed; previous low was 1.024 in an 11-point loss to Auburn). Suddenly, they’re not as terrible, losing only by four to Ole Miss on Saturday. Still, a losing record overall, a 1-5 SEC record, and having Darrin Horn as your head coach solidly keeps the Gamecocks in this group for now.
And you, Georgia? Just look at what a mess you’ve become. You’re the only team in the SEC to be outscored on the season (61 points per game, 62.9 allowed), your best win is a 61-point offensive outburst against RPI #82 Notre Dame, and you haven’t beaten a Top 100 team since November 22nd. We’re not asking much of you – just stop playing like a SWAC squad.
NIT Resumes Are Important Too! Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU
Auburn has quietly become one of the most infuriating offensive teams in the country. I watched them “battle” with Tennessee on Saturday and I don’t think I’ve seen a team this year that literally has zero offensive talent. Frankie Sullivan wasn’t really worth mentioning and Kenny Gabriel was alright, I suppose, but I can’t get over how embarrassingly bad they are with simple offensive skills. They’ve topped 1 point per possession ONCE in conference play, against South Carolina, which really shouldn’t count.
While said Tennessee team did put quite the beating on Auburn, especially on the glass, they still have a major problem: the team really only runs two-deep in terms of true skilled players in Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes. Trae Golden can be good, but he suffers a lot with frustrating offensive turnovers and hasn’t shot the ball well since November. Jordan McRae and Cam Tatum are both maddeningly inconsistent. (An APB has already been issued for Renaldo Woolridge, if you’re wondering.)
Justin Hamilton is still LSU’s best player by far this year, but he’s had little-to-no help all season long, which has hurt the Tigers in the long run. After going through this year’s SEC Murderers’ Row in #14 Florida, #18 Mississippi State, and #1 Kentucky (the first two being on the road), three losses, with only MSU being by a small margin, have solidly bumped LSU out of the NCAA Tournament picture for now with a 2-5 SEC record and a 12-9 record overall. It doesn’t get any easier from here: while three of the next four games are at home, they’re against Arkansas, Alabama, and #18 Mississippi State.
Shape Up or Ship Out: Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Mississippi State
All four of these teams have problems of varying length and/or consequences. All four of them could make the tournament or could miss it. As the SEC is currently projected to have five teams (Alabama and Mississippi State are both riding the 8/9 lines right now), you could potentially see anywhere from three (if literally everything went wrong) or seven (if Arkansas and Mississippi step up their play) SEC teams in the tournament. Let’s investigate these four teams and why they all need to dig a little deeper to be a team of consequence this postseason.
Arkansas. Fueled by one of the most pathetic out-of-conference schedules this side of 2010-11 Alabama, an 11-3 start sure looked nice (especially after starting SEC play with a 10-point victory over Mississippi State), but poor offensive numbers are killing them: they haven’t scored more than 69 points in an SEC game since January 7th and they aren’t particularly efficient on offense either (130th or lower in all field goal categories). They’ve quietly assembled a decent resume, though: wins over #18 MSU and #20 Michigan, no bad losses since a nine-point home loss to Houston in November, and a big opportunity against Vanderbilt on Tuesday night. To be on the right side of the bubble, they’ll need at least one marquee win (Florida on Feb. 18th works) and no inexcusable losses.
Mississippi. A bit tougher of a case than Arkansas, NCAA Tournament-wise: just one good win (Mississippi State at home), a very unfavorable schedule looming (road games against Alabama, MSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas all remain), and a bad loss to Auburn two weeks ago in double overtime. While Arkansas is solidly average on offense, Ole Miss is, for lack of a better word, pathetic: 28.7% on three-pointers, a sky-high turnover rate (15.9 per game, 316th in the country), and a failure to cooperate on free throws (60%, or 12th-worst in America). Yes, they have a large window of opportunity with so many big games remaining, but I have little-to-no confidence in them to make too much of it.
Alabama. Our first team that’s on the good side of the bubble. A 3-4 SEC record doesn’t look pretty, but three of the losses are to the three ranked SEC teams (the fourth is against South Carolina. Good grief.). Plus, their win against Wichita State in November is improving week-by-week in its status (the Shockers are currently 18-4). To top it off, the remaining schedule couldn’t be more favorable: every game left on the schedule is winnable and they may be favored in all but the Florida game. Their defense is good enough to slow down any team and assuming they make the tournament (and by all means, they should easily), they’ve got some potential to make the second weekend.
Mississippi State. Our safest bet out of this group to make the tournament, State has three good wins: a home win against West Virginia by 13, a road win at Vanderbilt, and a solid home win against Alabama. Factor in that they have no bad loss and they’re a safe bet to be in the bracket. They could easily win seven of their last nine to finish at 23-8 (11-5 SEC), which would be enough to probably slide them in somewhere around the 5 or 6 seed line. You have to wonder how much longer Arnett Moultrie can continue to play so far above what’s expected of him, though.
You’re Pretty Good and All, but I’ve Been Talking to Someone Else: Vanderbilt and Florida
Yes, Vandy’s at it again: hitting their stride in the regular season, looking like a cohesive and solid team, and threatening to be taken seriously by your average basketball fan, all while preparing for another early March exit. Jokes aside, this Vanderbilt team is pretty solid – I saw more than enough of their domination of Tennessee to confirm that – but as has been the norm of the last two seasons, a dangerous offense is accompanied by some average defense. They rank below 100th in all defensive shooting categories and they don’t force too many turnovers (13.7 per game, 167th in the country). They aren’t the 2008/2010 Vandy hype machine that’s ready to implode by any means, but the wrong matchup (a 5 vs. 12 or 6 vs. 11 matchup against super-athletic Xavier would be an example) will send them home early.
On to Florida, I feel like the poor play away from home is overplayed by the media: Kentucky was horrific in road games last year and they made the Final Four, and this Florida team’s pretty darn talented. Their offense, when clicking, is nearly unbeatable and very efficient. However, their defense can be described as matador-esque at times, as it seemed to be against Tennessee. I’ll feel a lot better about picking Florida to make the second weekend if they can pull off at least one decent road win against, say, Alabama or even Arkansas.
Nothing Compares to You: Kentucky
I can’t just throw Kentucky in with two good-but-not-great teams in the previous group. What can you say about the Wildcats that hasn’t already been said? Anthony Davis is simply an incredible athlete to watch, they’re outstanding on both sides of the ball, they’ve lost one game by one point, and they’re #1 in the nation. The only thing you can say they aren’t great at is free throw shooting (a Calipari staple), and they’re still in the top 40% of the nation in that category. They still need to mature a little more (namely Terrence Jones), but this might just be the year John Calipari breaks through.
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