Through the T – Looking at 2012: The Schedule
By Sam Scott
“Through the T” is a weekly series about everything Tennessee Football from traditions, to tailgating, to recruiting, to gameday and much more.
Over the next couple of weeks, in Through the T, we are going to take a look ahead at the 2012 season. The depth chart, the schedule, breaking down games one by one, and so on. Today, we’re going to focus on a broad look at Tennessee’s upcoming schedule. What will be the key games? Where are the must wins? The gimmies? Where to expect a loss?
As a whole, this schedule is not overly difficult. Of the 12 opponents, only three were ranked in the final AP Poll (#1 Alabama, #9 South Carolina, and #19 Georgia). The non-conference schedule is extremely light, NC State in the Georgia Dome will be the toughest of those contests. And of the tough conference games, the Vols get Alabama and Florida at home. With this schedule, the Vols have the opportunity to make a run. For Dooley the key is going to be taking care of business in the games that the Vols should win, which will be most of them.
Tennessee wil return most of the starting line up from 2011, a wealth of experience, and if there is anything this latest recruiting class bolstered, it’s the depth. Especially at offensive skill positions. The big question is how many games can the Vols win next year? The number will matter, but for Dooley and the sake of his job, who they beat will be very important as well. So far, Dooley is 4-12 in the SEC with wins against Vanderbilt (twice), Kentucky, and Ole Miss. At Tennessee that simply will not cut it.
Obviously, it’s way too early to make a legitimate prediction, but we’re going to look at the games on paper, and have an idea of the potential the Volunteers will have next season. There are factors you can’t measure on paper, because the best team doesn’t always win. But at this point, it’ all we have, to make judgements.
September 1st, 2012 – vs. North Carolina State -Georgia Dome- Atlanta, Georgia
This is the game I’m looking foreword to the most, not just because it’s the first one, but it’s when the questions will be answered. Will 2012 be different than 2011? Has Tyler Bray become a better quarterback? How good is our corps of receivers? And there are a plethora of new coaches who I will be interested to see their handiwork on the field. For me, what I will be looking for is if we can run the football. Obviously, we’re going to throw it, alot. But on the plays we do run, are we going backwards like we did against Georgia and Florida in 2011 or are we getting 3-4 yards a play and busing the occasional big one. Tennessee shouldn’t underestimate NC State, they are a solid team. But I think the Vols will be the favorite going in. Rest assured if the Vols lose this one, Dooley is going to be in very hot water, but for now, let’s assume the Vols take care of business. 1-0
September 8th, 2012 -vs. Georgia State – Knoxville, Tennessee
And then comes the tune up game. Georgia State is very new program in the FCS that began in 2010. Former Alabama and Kentucky coach Bill Curry is the head coach of the Panthers, so he knows all about losing to Tennessee. The Vols will give him a refresher. 2-0
* September 15th, 2012-vs. Florida – Knoxville Tennessee
I’m tabbing this one as the game that will decide Derek Dooley’s fate at Tennessee. There is no reason that the Vols can’t win this game. None. They have the talent, the depth, and the experience to beat a Florida team that will likely still be rebuilding. And, it’s in Neyland. For Tennessee, this will be a pride game. Do they want it enough to take it? It’s going to be crucial. This has to be a win. 3-0
* September 22nd, 2012-vs. Akron – Knoxville, Tennessee
Another easy one. Akron is terrible and they have a brand new coach. Vols roll easy over the Zips (one of my favorite mascots, it’s a kangaroo) 4-0
* September 29th, 2012-@ Georgia – Athens, Georgia
Georgia is going to have a talented team. We will know a lot more about this game when it comes around because there’s no telling what this Tennessee team will look like. Georgia is going to be really good. They did not lose many to graduation from a 10-4 SEC East Championship team. This early bird College Football preview has Georgia as the preseason #5. It’s always tough to win between the hedges, and it would take a lot for Tennessee to pull it off. Looking at it on paper, I’ll call this one a loss. 4-1
OPEN WEEK
* October 13th, 2012- @ Mississippi State – Starkville, Mississippi
Mississippi State had a bad year last season, and they will lose key startes on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, including stud running back Vick Ballard. Next year will see Mississipi State trying to break free from rebuilding, but I think they will struggle again. This would be a perfect time for Dooley to pick up his first SEC road win, something he will need on his resume by the end of the season. 5-1
* October 20th, 2012 – vs. Alabama – Knoxville, Tennessee
Tennessee is going to improve next season, and take some big strides. But not big enough to expect a win over Alabama. The fact that Alabama is losing some players to the draft doesn’t mean much when you average the #1 recruiting class every season. They will have talent, and be sure said talent will have the top coaching in the country. The result of the game will be less of a guarantee than in past years but Alabama should win. 5-2
* October 27th, 2012- @ South Carolina – Columbia, South Carolina
This could be a really interesting football game. It’s one of those were a loss wouldn’t kill you, but there is an opportunity to pick up a huge win on the road. Star RB Marcus Lattimore will be back from the knee injury (Tennessee was sheltered from the wrath of the Lattimore this season) and Connor Shaw has improved more and more as time passes. And it’s Steve Spurrier, he’s made a monopoly of beating Tennessee. This one will be tight, the Vols will have plenty of chances to win it. But on paper, Carolina is better and at home. 5-3
November 3rd, 2012 – vs. Troy – Knoxville, Tennessee
Tennessee has to avoid a slip up while taking a break from their SEC schedule. Troy is a Sun Belt team, but they also can leap up and surprise people who don’t come out ready to play. But the Vols should win this one. 6-3
* November 10th, 2012 – vs. Missouri – Knoxville, Tennessee
Missouri is going to be beaten and bloodied by the time they come riding into Knoxville in November. The weeks prior to Tennessee look like this: vs Alabama, Bye Week, vs. Kentucky, @ Florida. Missouri will also be replacing players on both sides of the ball from a team in 2011 that under-whelmed. Tennessee gives the Tigers their first taste of Neyland Stadium and a nice welcome to the SEC. 7-3
*November 17th, 2012 – @ Vanderbilt – Nashville, Tennessee
Vanderbilt is going to be pissed. If there is anything James Franklin has done in Nashville, he’s convinced those players that they can compete with anyone. After a heartbreaking loss in Neyland in 2011 almost sealed Franklin’s zeal for beating Tennessee, a video of Derek Dooley shouting something to the tune of Tennessee beats the you know what out of Vandy, has engrained in the Commodores mind that their going to give Tennessee hell when the Vols come to town. It’s going to be a nasty, sloppy, hard fought game. But Tennessee will survive and come out on top. 8-3
* November 24th, 2012 – vs. Kentucky – Knoxville, Tennessee
Now it’s Tennessee’s turn to be pissed. Every Tennessee player that was on the team in 2011 understands the significance of losing that game in November. It cost the Vols a bowl game, it ended the 26 year streak, and the way the Vols played against a terrible team without a quarterback was nothing short of embaressing. The Vols payback the Cats in convincing fashion. 9-3
Key Games
*Conference Games
Tennessee can win 9 games, and that would be a very solid season with wins over Florida and Mizzou at home, and Mississippi State and Vanderbilt on the road. Do I think they have the potential to go 10-2, or even 11-1, absolutely. Is it likely? probably not. But the fact is, it’s college football, anything can happen. And, we are Tennessee, there’s a reason we are one of the most prestigious programs in the history of the game. It’s not a question of if we will be back, but when. I believe 2012 is the year that, as Dooley says, the bamboo finally starts to shoot up, and it shoots up really, really fast.