AFT Bracketology – 2/24

It’s been some time since our last bracketology update. Sometimes school gets in the way, and that’s not a fun thing at all. Now, though, I’ve finally put together a new bracket. Here you go:

Team I Forgot to Insert in the Field Thanks to Stupidity and a Lack of Sleep: West Virginia
Last Four In: Northwestern, Washington, Arizona, Dayton
First Four Out: St. Joseph’s, NC State, Minnesota, Illinois

Now, a few comments:

Yes, the bubble is that terrible. Everything about this bubble sucks, and it’s only made worse by the fact teams on the bubble continue to lose at all costs, like Colorado State officially kicking themselves off the bubble with a loss to a mediocre Boise State squad. (They did beat New Mexico, however…) When Northwestern is one of your last teams in at 16-11 with a 2-9 record against Top 50 teams, it’s a sad time. And Dayton? I feel like the Flyers have tried their hardest to play themselves off the bubble, but they’re in for now just because they haven’t lost this week, grabbing a road win at Duquesne, which really isn’t that impressive.

Ohio State as a 1 seed. As a proud Buckeyes hater, even I’m going to admit they’re being underrated by most right now. I think they’re one of the four most dangerous teams in the country and they’re a great challenger to Kentucky. If, for some reason, they do end up with a 2 seed, they’ll be one of the scariest 2 seeds in recent history, or at least since UCLA in 2006.

Don’t judge a book by its cover. By that, I’m talking about the bubble again. Yes, the lower third of the at-larges are mostly terrible teams that are in the field by process of elimination, but I feel like there’s a lot of upset potential there. If Alabama makes it in as a 10 seed or lower, they can do a lot of damage with their defense against the right opponent(s). No part of me would want to face an 11-seeded Xavier that has some of the best guard play in America. Cincinnati’s RPI is atrocious (thanks to an ugly out of conference schedule), but they’re 5-3 against Top 50 teams. Considering that there really isn’t an elite team past Kentucky, this could be another upset-heavy tournament.

As for thoughts on individual matchups/seedings, I’ll throw some out there as well.

Most underseeded team. You might have been expecting this one considering how much I pump them up around this time each year, but it’s 14-seeded Belmont. The Bruins have somewhat underperformed their preseason expectations, dropping games to Lipscomb, Miami (OH), and South Carolina Upstate, all three terrible losses. However, they’ve finally started to hit their stride at the perfect time in February (no losses since Jan. 21) and their offense is its typical efficient self at 83 points per game and 7th in the nation on KenPom.com. If Belmont can jump to the 13 line or even the 12, their opponent won’t be very happy about their misfortune.

Honorable mentions. Wichita State is a 4 seed and I still feel that we’re undervaluing this team badly. It’s very hard to identify a death knell/weakness with this team and as long as they don’t get screwed over by the selection committee they’re at least an Elite Eight team to me. New Mexico at the 5 line is very dangerous on defense, as UNLV learned last week. UNLV averages 82 per game – they only put up 45 against the Lobos. Wisconsin is a 4 seed, but I think they’ve got Elite Eight or even Final Four potential with their utterly ridiculous defense. They’re allowing 51 points per game. 51!

Most overseeded team. Surprise! It’s Duke. Duke plays some pretty iffy defense and their best player, Austin Rivers, is a freshman, which doesn’t usually bode well come tournament time. Remember when Ohio State smacked up the Blue Devils by 22 in November? That wasn’t a fluke. In close games, their free throw woes will hurt them as well. Against Miami (FL) at home in early February, they went 0-6 from the line in overtime to lose by four.

Honorable mentions. Vanderbilt, because they’ll lose to a mid-major in the first round like always. Missouri‘s a bit overvalued as well. As good as their offense as been, their defense has been really miserable at times and it looks like they’re starting to run out of gas as the season winds down. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they lost in the round of 32 as a 2 seed. Indiana has that “first-round loss to the plucky mid-major school” feeling about them and they haven’t been the same team since Big Ten play started.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Come back next Monday for a new edition of Bracketology. Hopefully the bubble will be slightly more clear by then.