AFT Bracketology – 3/6

Another crazy weekend of college basketball has led to a shakeup at the bubble. Who’s in and who’s out? I’ve got reasons for both for several teams and a full bracket following the jump.

Last Four In: Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Iona, Dayton
First Four Out: Drexel, Xavier, Northwestern, Tennessee
Next Four Out: South Florida, St. Joseph’s, Middle Tennessee, NC State

Yes, Iona is in as an at-large. I think we’ve talked about this in a previous bracketology edition, and I know this probably doesn’t have that much of a chance of happening (if any mid-major gets an at-large, it’ll probably be Drexel), but who would you rather see: Xavier, who has been consistently mediocre for two months; Northwestern, who hasn’t done anything aside from lose to good teams and not lose to bad ones; South Florida, who’s getting a lot of hype for having a resume worse than Northwestern’s; or Iona, who runs their offense NASCAR-style, and Drexel, who won 19 straight games before losing by three to VCU last night?

Why can’t you just win? I’ve said enough about my opinion on the quality of this year’s bubble teams, but it’s pretty darn embarrassing when a team like Dayton is in the field literally because they haven’t lost since last Tuesday. Also, every single team seeded at the 10 and 11 lines has lost a game since last Sunday. Ugh.

To appeal to our site’s audience… I know what the majority of people reading this article are coming to look for: Tennessee, their at-large chances, and why I don’t have them in the field yet. I’ll answer: Tennessee currently isn’t in the field because their losses to Austin Peay, Oakland, and College of Charleston really, really hurt right now. Plus, close losses to Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke might look nice, but they’re still losses. However, as has been stated before, Tennessee should be in the field (into the First Four, in all likelihood) if they win two games in the SEC Tournament. At the rate bubble teams are deflating (Mississippi State and Xavier have fallen like boulders since early January), Tennessee could win one game and probably still somehow slip in. If it’s anything like last year, don’t be the last team to lose (VCU lost their conference championship game six days before Selection Sunday in 2011).

As promised, here are a few awards for the bracket and for the field as a whole:

Most overrated/overseeded team. After Duke’s blowout home loss to UNC, it’s hard to pick one team…I hate to do this, but I’ll go with the UNLV Rebels. This is picking nits at best because they’re a 5 seed, but they’ve lost four straight road games (two to NCAA Tournament squads, one to an NIT team, and one to a probable CBI team) and it’s been a month since they’ve beaten an NCAA Tournament team (San Diego State by 2 at home). What they do in the Mountain West Tournament could change this, but for now they take the slight edge over Baylor.

Most underrated/underseeded team. We’ll split this title between two teams, just because I feel like I spend too much time talking about one of them: the Wichita State Shockers and the Saint Louis Billikens. You’ve heard enough from me about Wichita State, but even with their loss in the MVC semifinals to a motivated Illinois State team (by one point, mind you) I still feel confident about picking them to go to the Elite Eight. Saint Louis is a strange and different case: rated very highly by all metrics (KenPom and ESPN’s BPI, especially) but overlooked by the polls and general public. The Billikens boast one of the best and most experienced mid-major coaches you’ll find in Rick Majerus and a stifling defense that has allowed just 57 points per game. They’re a fairly experienced squad (one senior, two juniors, and two sophomores make up the starters) and they’re riding a hot streak, winning eight of nine from February to now with the one loss being by two points on the road. Given the right draw, I’d feel safe about taking Saint Louis to the Sweet 16.

First-round upset that took the least amount of time to pick. There aren’t any easy ones that I can see, but I’d like Belmont‘s chances against Baylor. Granted, I consider Belmont the mid-major school I outwardly root for most (growing up in Middle Tennessee can do that to you), but I’ll offer a few reasons why I’d feel good about this: Belmont will be one of the most experienced teams in the tournament (2 seniors, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore starting and a senior sixth man) with one of the best coaches in the tournament (Rick Byrd is awesome. Let’s face it). Based on the projected field, they’d be the fourth-best shooting team in terms of effective field goal percentage. They shoot the three ball as well as anyone (Drew Hanlen and Ian Clark average 49% and 41%, respectively) and seem to have found themselves on defense in the last few weeks as well. Baylor, in contrast, would be one of the least-experienced teams in the tournament with a coach who’s had one season not end in double-digit losses. They’re coming into the Big 12 Tournament cold as well, losing four of their last eight.

Best contender for this year’s Butler. To qualify, the team must be seeded fifth or lower, have never made it deeper than the Sweet Sixteen, and be from a true mid-major conference (for these purposes, the Mountain West and Conference USA are removed from consideration). My selection is the Creighton Bluejays. I’m not saying they’re going to replicate either of Butler’s unbelievable runs in 2010 and 2011, but they’ve got a good shot at making school history. Creighton has the best mid-major player in Doug McDermott and a good foundation surrounding him with Grant Gibbs, Gregory Echenique, and Antoine Young. Given the right draw, you could see two Missouri Valley teams in the Elite Eight this year (Creighton hasn’t made it past the second round since 1974).

The mid-major you’ve never seen play but will make the Sweet Sixteen. Most have heard of these guys from California by now, but the Long Beach State 49ers will bust some brackets next week. Head coach Dan Monson went all-out in preparing his team for NCAA Tournament play, scheduling an incredible six road games against preseason Top 25 teams and watching it all pay off as they coasted to a 13-1 Big West record (losing their final game by three points). Nothing you throw at this team will faze them, as they’ve literally seen it all. They’ll be the third-most experienced team in the tournament (behind Missouri and Wichita State; four senior starters) and feature one of the most exciting players to watch in the entire sport in 5’10” point guard Casper Ware. Don’t be surprised if you see this team make a run to the second weekend.

That’s all I’ve got for today. I’ll be back either tomorrow or Thursday with an updated bracket and more thoughts on the field of 68.