Would Butch Jones Leave Tennessee For Michigan?

It’s late October, do you know where your head coach is?

As the college football season enters its final month, we’re reminded that the hot seats are hotter and the rumor mill is churning as fiercely as ever.

Reports of secret meetings, late night phone calls and fired coaches will undoubtedly fill your social media timelines for the next month. As will flight reports, contract extensions and likely, somewhere along the way, a few mentions of Jon Gruden.

Tennessee fans have found themselves in a sticky situation come the end of the college football season over the past six years. They finally have their coach — the right one in the eyes of many — but that doesn’t mean they get to sit out the fun that is the coaching carousel.

That’s because rumors of Michigan (who still has a coach by the way) being interested in Vols head coach Butch Jones are already circulating.

It’s very, very likely that Michigan fires Brady Hoke at the end of the season (if not before). Which means they’ll once again be in the market for a coach.

Michigan’s list of names will likely include major names such as San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh and LSU head coach Les Miles (both Michigan alums).

If Michigan strikes out with those names (which they probably will), they’ll move on to a different group of names. A group that will likely include Butch Jones.

It’s still very early and Michigan’s perceived interest in Butch Jones is believed to be speculation at this point (though there is at least one report that suggests Michigan has real interest in Jones).

Butch Jones to Michigan, on the surface, would make sense. He’s been a somewhat hot coaching name even since his days at Central Michigan. He’s obviously a tremendous recruiter and he has a career winning percentage of .600.

And then there’s the fact that Butch Jones is from Michigan. That seems to be the biggest piece to the puzzle as far as the rumor mills go.

Butch Jones spent a lot of time coaching in the state of Michigan. Most of his career has been spent in Big 10/Big East territory (he’s never coached at a Big 10 school however).

But that’s pretty much where the Butch Jones to Michigan logic ends.

So is this is a real possibility? Would Butch Jones leave Tennessee for Michigan?

I don’t think so. I’ll stop short of saying it’s a certainty that he wouldn’t leave, only because I’ve seen too many crazy things happen in the world of college football. But I think the chances are slim — very slim — that he skips town after two seasons.

So let’s look at a few reasons why I believe Jones is in Knoxville for the long haul.

Tennessee is his “dream job”. 

Ok, I’m not naive enough to believe Tennessee, specifically, was Butch Jones’ “dream job” from a young age. I’m not even convinced his “dream job” existed.

I think Jones’ “dream job” was a school in a major conference, with a storied history, in a community that lived and breathed football.

Tennessee fits the bill.

I’m sure Jones had his eye on some jobs. And Michigan might have even been one of those jobs. But Jones, on the day he was hired, made it very clear that Knoxville was a place where he wanted to plant roots.

"Jones: “You can look at our facilities and look at our ability to attract an upper-echelon student-athlete to come to school here. You can look at the opportunity to play in front of over 100,000 fans every gameday. I think the place speaks for itself. Obviously, we understand the tradition that is associated with this program. The other thing – when we talk about a dream job – when I was young and it was Barb and I, we would move anywhere. But when you have three children, with moving you become more selective and we thought that Knoxville would be a tremendous community to raise our boys. That also played into that part as well.”"

Jones has embraced Tennessee traditions and former players so much that it’s hard to believe he didn’t suit up for the Big Orange.

So while I don’t think Tennessee was the job Jones dreamed of as a child, I do believe it’s a destination job for him.

(By the way, calling Michigan the dream job of Jones is completely ignoring the fact that Jones has ZERO connection to Michigan, unlike Lane Kiffin and USC.)

Another rebuilding project? 

Butch Jones is two years into a rebuilding project that looks like it’s going to turn out better than anyone could’ve imagined. He’s recruiting better than anyone predicted. His 2014 class was one of the best the Vols have seen in a while. His 2015 class is shaping up to be even better.

So why would Jones leave a place where he’s put in two years worth of work, to completely start over?

Michigan’s trajectory is very similar to Tennessee’s. I can’t see Jones erasing all the work he’s put in since 2012, just to move back to Michigan.

Would Michigan even seriously pursue Butch Jones? 

I’m sure the Wolverines will be somewhat interested in Jones. His recruiting is second to none as of late and the Vols’ program is making strides.

But it’s going to be tough for a school like Michigan to sell a guy with a 8-12 SEC record.

Not to mention the fact that Jones is a Rich Rodriguez protege. Jones coached with Rodriguez at West Virginia, before heading to Ann Arbor to take the Michigan job.

The Rich Rod era in Michigan did not go well. The spread offense never worked and Rodriguez was soon out of town.

How likely is it that Michigan would hire a guy that Jones coached under (and considers a mentor)?

"Jones: “Obviously, there are a number of individuals who have really kind of helped define some of my principles. I’ve been very fortunate to work for a lot of very successful coaches – not just head coaches – but many assistant coaches who are now in the National Football League. I take a little bit from Rich Rodriguez.”"

I don’t think Michigan would be very open to hiring a guy that reminds them of the Rich Rod era. That’d be like Tennessee hiring a guy that coached under Lane Kiffin or Derek Dooley.

Jones loves the SEC

There aren’t many weeks that go by that Butch Jones doesn’t talk about how the SEC is the toughest conference in the nation.

He also never fails to mention that unless you’ve coached/played in the SEC, you can’t understand.

"Jones: “If you want to be best, you want to compete in the best and obviously the SEC is the best football conference in the country.”"

If Jones thinks the SEC is clearly the best, why would he leave for what he perceives to be an inferior conference? Wouldn’t that downplay his competitive nature a bit?

I don’t think Vol fans have any reason to fear Jones heading to Michigan. He’s surrounded by a coaching staff that is fiercely loyal to each other. Some of them have been with Jones a long time. If Butch decided he wanted to leave, he wouldn’t just be making a decision for himself, it would also involve those around him. Those same folks that have completely embraced the culture at Tennessee.

You can never say never, but Jones to Michigan is about as likely as Gruden to Tennessee.