Five Reasons the Vols Won’t Win the SEC East

Oct 25, 2014; Knoxville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) runs the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

1. A Brutal Schedule

Remember that 2015 preseason power index mentioned before? Well the Vols play 9 teams in the top 52 on the rankings. That leaves only Bowling Green, Western Carolina, and North Texas not in the rankings for the Vols in 2015.

And even Bowling Green and Western Carolina finished with winning records in 2014.

The second game of the season will pit the Vols against Oklahoma, a team who handily beat Tennessee 34-10 in Norman last season. The Vols will get the Sooners in Knoxville this season, but that game is far from a certain victory. It’s about as much of a toss-up as any game on Tennessee’s schedule in 2015.

Then a few weeks later the Vols will travel to The Swamp to take on the Florida Gators, a place Tennessee hasn’t won at since 2003 when Casey Clausen led the Vols to a 24-10 victory. The Gators may be as down as they’ve ever been in their 10-game winning streak over Tennessee, but assuming the Vols can go into Gainesville and snatch a victory from the Gators for the first time in 12 years isn’t a safe bet with all the unknowns on both sides heading into the season.

The Vols then have home games against Arkansas and Georgia, two games that will, once again, be anything but guaranteed victories. The Razorbacks look to be the team on the rise in the SEC West in 2015 much like the Vols are hyped to be out of the East, and the Bulldogs always play close, well-matched games with Tennessee. Having both games at home helps, however.

That brings us to the road games in 2015.

Tennessee will play Alabama, Kentucky, and Missouri on the road in three of the last six games to close out the season. Alabama will be Tennessee’s most talented opponent in 2015, and no matter what strides the Vols took in the offseason, playing the Tide in Tuscaloosa will likely be a loss. The Vols should defeat Kentucky in Lexington, but that game should still prove to be a tougher match-up than previous seasons. And the Vols have yet to beat Missouri since they’ve joined the SEC, making their game in Columbia in 2015 yet another toss-up.

The Vols will also host South Carolina and Vanderbilt in 2015. The game against the Commodores should be one of the only guaranteed conference victories for the Vols next season, but Tennessee should be able to hold their own against the Gamecocks as well after defeating them in each of Butch Jones’s first 2 seasons.

By that count, the Vols have one nearly guaranteed loss (Alabama), 5-6 guaranteed wins (Bowling Green, Western Carolina, North Texas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and possibly South Carolina), and 5-6 toss-up games (Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, and possibly South Carolina).

It’s not likely the Vols will win all their toss-up games, so assuming they lose to Alabama, that gives Tennessee potentially 2-3 conference losses in 2015. A team with 3 conference losses hasn’t won the East since South Carolina finished 5-3 in 2010.

The Vols will likely show marked improvement in their win/loss record in 2015. But their schedule isn’t conducive to winning the East just yet.