Tennessee football is a favorite to win the SEC East in 2016. Who would the Volunteers face if they make the conference championship game?
Related Story: Tennessee Football: 5 Vols Who Played in 2015 but Shouldn't Play in 2016
The talk about the SEC East is on, and Tennessee Vols fans are secretly hoping for more. They’re hoping for an SEC Championship to end a school-record 17-year drought.
But what are the chances that happens?
Well, a lot of it depends on just who wins the SEC West. At SEC Media Days, the Alabama Crimson Tide were listed as the clear favorites while the LSU Tigers were right there, with the Ole Miss Rebels being a distant third.
A Tennessee-Alabama rematch in the SEC Championship game would be something the conference has been waiting for since it split into two divisions back in 1992, and it is very odd that the two winningest programs in the conference have still failed to meet for the SEC Title.
Were it not for one fourth-quarter collapse against the Florida Gators, it would have happened last year.
But while many people would love to see that this year, there is one significant piece of history working against the league: they have almost never accurately predicted the SEC Championship game, even if they usually get at least one division winner right.
The trend suggests that they will get one division winner right, and with the Vols and Tide both favored to win their divisions, it’s unlikely that both fulfill their expectations.
Also, Alabama would become the Florida of the 1990s in SEC dominance if they won a third straight division title in a much tougher SEC.
When you consider the fact that they have to replace their quarterback, their Heisman Trophy winning running back, two offensive linemen, and five people on their front seven, where Nick Saban builds his defense, along with the departure of defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, there’s a lot working against the Tide this year that people aren’t considering.
They also have to travel to Knoxville in the regular season, which will be very tough if the Vols are as good as advertised, and they have to play at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, and at LSU. Although it’s not a conference game, throw in USC at the beginning of the year, and the Tide have the most miserable schedule in the country by far. If they lose to the Trojans, it’ll be a momentum killer that makes it very hard for them to have the right mentality in all these games.
Les Miles, after almost being fired last year, though, has everybody back on his team just like Butch Jones does in Knoxville. And just decent quarterback play would make this team invincible with Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette in the backfield.
The LSU Tigers also have a tough schedule, facing the Wisconsin Badgers in Green Bay to open the season, but in terms of their conference schedule, they get Missouri and Florida from the West, which is not too hard, and they do get Alabama and Ole Miss at home. Now Auburn, Texas A&M, and Arkansas on the road will be tough, but not as bad as Alabama and Ole Miss on the road.
So based on the draw from the conference schedule, the Tigers might have the luckiest draw getting the other two contenders at home.
And while Ole Miss is the third contender, they remain an elite team on the surface with not lots of depth, so they’ll fall apart like they always do down the stretch, and this year, with all the distractions about potential probation, it’s likely Hugh Freeze’s team quits.
All of this makes it most likely that the LSU Tigers win the SEC West, and that is where you should put your money if you are betting. If the Vols win the East, then Tennessee-LSU is the most likely SEC Championship game.
That match-up has happened before, and it’s produced two heartbreakers. In 2001, the Vols blew a chance to go to the national title by losing to a much worse Tigers team, and in 2007, they had a chance to exact revenge but blew a 14-13 lead due to two late-game interceptions by Erik Ainge.
Is the third time a charm? Maybe.
must read: Tennessee Football: 10 Vols Seniors With the Most NFL Potential
Because if you had to bet on the likely SEC Championship game this year, Tennessee-LSU is where you should put your money.