Tennessee Football: Should the Vols be Favored Over the Gators?

Vegas lines range from six and a half to 10 points in favor of Tennessee football over the Gators Saturday. But should the Volunteers be favorites at all?

It’s quite a risk by the oddsmakers, isn’t it? Tennessee football is suffering an 11-game losing streak to the Florida Gators, yet they’re favored this weekend in Knoxville.

On the surface, there are plenty of reasons to believe that’s the case. The Vols were the favorites to win the SEC East this year, they only lost to Florida by one on the road last year and returned much more talent than the Gators did this year. They’re playing at home.

And Florida is playing a backup quarterback.

These all may be valid reasons to give the Vols a slight edge. But their point spread of roughly six and a half is ridiculous.

Let’s just start from the football angle. Tennessee’s offense has looked wildly inconsistent through three games. They have suffered from horrendous offensive line play, and they struggled to beat a Sun Belt team and a MAC team. Meanwhile, Florida has blown out everybody. They’ve only allowed 14 points on defense all year.

And while the Gators are starting a backup quarterback, the Vols are missing their starting middle linebacker and their No. 1 cornerback.

Now, all of that alone would suggest this game is between two teams with about the same level of talent. Only preseason hype and the game being at Neyland would give the Vols a slight edge.

But again, how does this explain the six and a half?

After all, wouldn’t the streak come into play at this point? Doesn’t everybody universally accept that Florida is in Tennessee’s head?

Wouldn’t that swing a few points slightly in Florida’s favor?

Maybe not. In fact, it appears to be swinging in Tennessee’s favor. Oddsmakers are over-reacting to the law of averages.

Conventional wisdom says there’s just no way Tennessee football could suffer another loss to the Gators. They are bound to end this streak, right?

After two straight one-point losses that the Vols should have one, Vegas is looking at this game the way they looked at the Alabama-Ole Miss game. They are saying Florida’s luck has to run out.

However, they’re ignoring the fact that Florida is much better this year than it was the past two years. And they are ignoring how much better Florida has played than Tennessee through three games so far.

Must Read: 10 Most Infamous Plays in Vols Losing Streak to Florida

Maybe Tennessee will cover the spread. Heck, they could win this game 45-10 and unleash years of frustration. But they should have to prove that on the field.

And right now, oddsmakers are giving them far too much respect.

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