Tennessee Basketball: Vols Need to Win Three of Final Four to Reach NCAA Tournament

Tennessee basketball is fighting for its NCAA Tournament life. The Volunteers need to win three of their final four games to have a shot at the Big Dance.

Well here we are. With four games left, Tennessee basketball has a 15-12 record and is squarely on the bubble to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Most educated people would believe that Rick Barnes’s team right now is out of the tournament and has work to do. Based on our bracketology story from this morning, that is clearly the case. Three of the four main ones have the Vols outside of the tournament, and they have dropped from nearly in the Top 35 to now out of the Top 50 of the RPI.

But of their final four games, two are against Top 50 RPI teams, the Vanderbilt Commodores and South Carolina Gamecocks, another is against a Top 100 RPI team and fellow bubble team, the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the other is against the LSU Tigers, who will kill the Vols’ schedule strength.

After all, playing the Missouri Tigers dropped their schedule strength from No. 4 to No. 10 in the RPI, and it’s why they took a nose dive.

Taking all this into account, the Vols need to win three of their final four games to get themselves a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

The only acceptable loss will be to South Carolina on the road.

Vanderbilt is up first at home. They are a Top 50 RPI team at No. 49, but their record is 14-13. The record is 50 percent of the Vols’ RPI, so it won’t help them much. However, the Commodores do have a Top 5 strength of schedule. That’s 25 percent of the RPI.

And if the Vols beat them, they take care of the other 25 percent.

So a win in this game could give them a big jump if you look at the math.

Then comes the Gamecocks on the road. That’s a win they’d love to have. But South Carolina’s 19-7 record, No. 30 ranking in the RPI, and Top 50 strength of schedule are all things that will boost the Vols’ schedule strength.

So even with a loss, they’ll likely move up.

However, they have to brace for a major drop when facing the LSU Tigers, and the only way to alleviate that is with a win.

Then comes the Alabama Crimson Tide. Tennessee is hosting Avery Johnson’s team, and Johnson and Barnes will be in a battle for the tournament the final regular season game of both their second years.

If Tennessee basketball wins that game and beats Vanderbilt and LSU, they likely head to the SEC Tournament with an 18-13 record, Top 10 strength of schedule, and Top 50 RPI.

That’s exactly what they need to reach the tournament. But it doesn’t stop there.

This is what they have to do to keep themselves in position for the tournament at a minimum. After that, they need to get a win or two in the SEC Tournament.

Getting to 18-13 and winning two games in the conference tournament will be more than enough to assure them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. That would be 20 wins.

Reaching 19 wins likely gets them into the tournament as well.

But if they stay stuck at 18 wins, they are playing the guessing game. And that’s going to be tough.

So their best chance is to get to 18 wins in the regular season, which requires winning three of four. Then they’ll have a chance for one to two wins in the SEC Tournament.