Tennessee football recruiting: Recent history indicates Vols’ 2018 class could be great

Tennessee football’s 2018 recruiting class did not meet the standards for many Volunteers fans. But recent history indicates that it could be great.

Related Story: National Signing Day 2018 grades

Jeremy Pruitt’s first recruiting class in Knoxville looks a lot like Butch Jones’s first class as Tennessee football’s head coach. Both had disappointing National Signing Days by losing out on a lot of recruits.

As a result, they both had Top 25 classes but were middle of the pack in the SEC. However, in Jones’s case, that class became by far the most productive class he ever had during his time on Rocky Top.

The 2013 Tennessee football recruiting class was ranked No. 21 in the nation with 22 signees. Among those signees included Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Malik Foreman, Josh Smith, Brett Kendrick, Corey Vereen, Dylan Wiesman, Cameron Sutton, Kendal Vickers, and of course, Joshua Dobbs.

By the way, speaking of Dobbs, another commitment to that class was Riley Ferguson, who went on to become a star quarterback for the Memphis Tigers. Every one of those players outside of Reeves-Maybin was a three-star or worse on Rivals.

However, all of them became very reliable producers. Meanwhile, Butch Jones’s next two classes had a total of 60 signees and were both in the Top 5. Neither of them matched the productivity of that first class.

Sure, you had some stars in those two classes like Josh Malone and Derek Barnett in 2014 and Alvin Kamara in 2015. But Jalen Hurd clearly didn’t work out, and Kahlil McKenzie was a bust.

Drew Richmond and Kyle Phillips are the other two five-stars from those two classes, and both have been solid but nowhere near deserving of their recruiting ranking.

In terms of raw numbers, we can safely say the 2014 and 2015 classes did have more overall players who were productive than the 2013 class. But the 2013 class was incredibly productive with key players.

Pruitt may have found a similar class in 2018. Sure, it wasn’t a Top 25 class. But he did find guys who could be steals, including a collection of three-stars and two-stars that were worthy of four-star ratings. We mentioned those guys in this post here.

But it’s not just Butch Jones’s tenure that shows Tennessee football fans shouldn’t fret about this recruiting class. Throughout this century, the Vols’ top classes have been among their least productive.

Let’s go back to the beginning of the Rivals era in 2002. Tennessee football had the No. 2 ranked recruiting class that year.

However, despite three fewer commitments and a ranking 16 spots below, the 2003 class had as many players become productive starters for Tennessee football and only had two fewer guys see any NFL action. The 2004 class, also outside of the Top 10, was just as predictive.

The next Top 5 class for Tennessee football was 2005. That class had 26 commitments, and only four of those players ever saw NFL action.

Then there’s the 2007 class, which was another Top 5 class and had 32 commitments. Yes, it had Eric Berry, one of the greatest players in school history. He was one of only two players to become a regular contributor in the NFL from that class, though, with the other being three-star Denarius Moore.

By the time Derek Dooley took over in 2010, half of that class was gone thanks to missed talent and Lane Kiffin gutting the roster. Speaking of Kiffin and Dooley, they’re relevant here as well.

Both achieved Top 10 classes their first year in Knoxville. Not one person from Kiffin’s class became an NFL starter.

Now, the 2010 class did produce some serious talent, to be fair. The kicker and punter from that class are both starting punters in the NFL. James Stone, Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, Mychal Rivera, Rajion Neal and Justin Hunter have all seen significant NFL action. And Tyler Bray is still on a roster.

But for perspective, that’s the Vols’ most productive Top 10 class in the Rivals era. So what does this all mean?

Well, it does state the obvious that we don’t know how these guys are going to turn out. But Tennessee football’s recent history of elite recruiting classes has spelled much more failure than success with the exception of that 2010 class.

Next: What went right for Vols on National Signing Day?

As a result, it may not be such a bad thing that Jeremy Pruitt’s first class in Knoxville is outside of the Top 15. Now, going forward, he’s going to want to load up a lot more. But at least history shows that this class can be very productive.