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How Much Could a Double-Bye Help the Vols in March?

By Billy Williford

KNOXVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 21: Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers reacts after scoring a basket and drawing a foul against the Florida Gators in the second half of a game at Thompson-Boling Arena on February 21, 2018 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee won 62-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 21: Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers reacts after scoring a basket and drawing a foul against the Florida Gators in the second half of a game at Thompson-Boling Arena on February 21, 2018 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee won 62-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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Tennessee basketball a two-game lead on third place in the SEC standings. In the past, having a double-bye has paid off. Can the Volunteers get one?

It’s quite amazing that its last February and there is only one week left in the college basketball season. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about how Tennessee basketball was projected 13th in the SEC and at best on bubble consideration when it came to the NCAA Tournament.

Although the expectations were low, I don’t think any fan expected what the Vols did this year. Fast forward to present day and Tennessee already has 20 wins and is staring a second place finish with a double-bye for the SEC Tournament in the face. I think it’s worth repeating that Tennessee was projected 13th and is currently sitting in second place behind the Auburn Tigers.

That’s certainly impressive, but what happened in the state up North earlier this season was even better for Rocky Top. The Vols beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena for the first time since 2006. Christmas continued long after December for Tennessee basketball fans as this year’s team was only the second team in the history of the program to sweep Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the same season.

With a two-game lead on the third place teams which is a cluster of six teams that includes Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama, the Vols should finish second in the standings. Unless they stumble and finish the season 0-3. If UT can take care of business in the last three games, they will earn a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, and you never know what could happen.

So where did the double byes come from? In 2013 the SEC started implementing the double bye with the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M to the conference. Having the double-bye has proven to be a privilege in the SEC. Can the Vols take advantage? Here’s the five-year history and how double-bye is beneficial.

SEC Tournament

No. 1-4 seeds are 15-5 in their first games of the SEC Tournament. The No. 1 seed has made an appearance in the finals each year, while the No. 2 seed has appeared three times and the No. 3 seed has two appearances.

The No.1 seed has won the championship three times while the No. 2 and No. 3 have split the other two years.

So to recap No. 1-4 seeds win 75% of their first games in the SEC Tournament when they have a double-bye. Teams want to be a No. 1-3 seed to have a chance to play in the Championship Game.

According to recent past, you can pretty much chalk up the No. 1 seed making it to the Championship Game, and once they are there, they win at a 60% rate.

Even in recent years that double bye has translated to success in the NCAA Tournament and yes I’m talking about more teams than just Kentucky.

NCAA Tournament

2017: Most recently 2017 featured three of the four double-bye teams from the SEC make the Elite 8 (Kentucky and Florida), and one (South Carolina) make the Final Four.

Arkansas was the only team that failed to reach the Elite 8; they lost in the second round to North Carolina. North Carolina was also the team to end Kentucky’s dance.

It should also be noted that Florida and South Carolina had to play each other in the Elite 8 or maybe the SEC could have had two teams in the Final Four.

2016: In 2016 only two of the double-bye teams reached the NCAA Tournament (Texas A&M and Kentucky). Kentucky went out in round two, and Texas A&M made it to the Sweet 16.

2015: In 2015, all four double-bye teams made the tournament (Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, and LSU). Kentucky made the Final Four but lost to Wisconsin.

2014: Do you enjoy an all-SEC matchup in a Championship Game? 2014 was almost the year that happened. Three of the four double-bye teams made the dance (Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee). Tennessee basketball played in the play-in game and ended up making it to the Sweet 16. Florida and Kentucky made it to the Final Four, and the Wildcats were runner-ups.

2013: The first year of the double-byes in 2013 only two of the teams were represented in the NCAA Tournament (Florida and Ole Miss). Florida went on to make the Elite 8.

To recap, out of the 20 double-byes in the SEC Tournament, 15 of the teams have made the NCAA Tournament. Here’s where it gets special for conference fans and exciting for Tennessee fans.

13 out of 15 first round wins
9 Sweet 16 appearances
7 Elite 8 appearances
4 Final Four appearances

Don’t fret Vol fans. This team might not be playing to their full potential, but if history has anything to say about it, they will be just fine. As long as they keep the ball moving, Tennessee basketball can get that double-bye.

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