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SEC Tournament effect on Tennessee Lady Vols NCAA Tournament seed

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 17: Tennessee Volunteers fans get ready before a game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Thompson-Boling Arena on December 17, 2017 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 17: Tennessee Volunteers fans get ready before a game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Thompson-Boling Arena on December 17, 2017 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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The Tennessee women’s basketball Volunteers need the SEC Tournament for a high seed in the NCAA Tourney. Here’s what each round will get them.

Although they are the No. 7 seed in the SEC Tournament, the Tennessee Lady Vols are the second-highest SEC team in the RPI. And they’re the third highest in both Top 25 polls.

Simply put, their resume shows that they are better than that 7-seed. After all, that seed comes despite them having the same conference record as the No. 4 seed: 11-5. One more win, and they would have been a No. 2 seed.

Still, Tennessee is a No. 7 seed in the SEC Tournament set to face the Auburn Tigers Thursday night. Their NCAA Tournament seeding hinges on what they do in this tourney.

Here, we’re going to preview what each round gets them. So this is our outline of exactly what seed they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament based on which round they go.

1. Lose Thursday night to Auburn 

Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 4

The Tennessee Lady Vols were looking at a No. 3 seed and flirting with No. 2 in most recent bracketology projections. And a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide didn’t drop them too far down. However, losing to Alabama and Auburn towards the end of the year could be devastating. With a 23-6 record overall, they would be 23-7.

Other SEC teams they expect to be seeded ahead of would then be able to gain more points. Currently, the only teams flirting with a higher seed are the South Carolina Gamecocks and, for sure, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. But a loss to Auburn gives the Missouri Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs and Texas A&M Aggies chances to bump them.

The LSU Tigers are still likely below them, though, and those teams all can’t bump them since they have to beat each other up. So we have them safe as a 4-seed at worst, even if they lose Thursday.

2. Defeat Auburn Thursday; Lost to South Carolina Friday

Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 3

This is what the Tennessee Lady Vols are projected to do in the NCAA Tournament anyway. And as you can see from our bracketology report heading into the SEC Tournament, they were a No. 3 seed with the possibility of a No. 2 seed.

However, I tend to think the NCAA Selection Committee will agree that Tennessee’s current No. 9 ranked RPI is over-inflated with two quality wins against South Carolina when they didn’t have A’ja Wilson. As a result, beating Auburn and losing to South Carolina will awaken people’s reality about where they really are, and they’ll finish with a No. 3 seed, just barely.

3. Defeat Auburn and South Carolina; Lose on Saturday

Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 3

I still would say that even if they defeated Auburn and South Carolina, Tennessee would remain a No. 3 seed. Sure, South Carolina with A’ja Wilson gives them another quality win. But even with their current over-inflated RPI, they are only No. 9, which is grounds for a 3-seed.

As a result, Tennessee will be flirting with a No. 2 seed with wins on Thursday and Friday. However, too many other teams have great resumes. So they will be the top 3-seed in the tournament if they make it to Saturday.

4. Advance to the title game

Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 2

If the Tennessee Lady Vols advance to the SEC Tournament championship game, we don’t have to debate much. They’d be a No. 2 seed for sure. Doing this would get Holly Warlick’s team to 26-6 overall, and they would have two more quality wins under their resume.

One would be again against South Carolina. Then they would have to beat Georgia or, barring a major upset Thursday, Missouri. That would boost them into potentially the Top 6 of the RPI, so they wouldn’t even be the lowest 2-seed. They would head into Sunday hoping for a potential No. 1 seed.

5. Win the SEC Tournament championship

Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 2

There is nothing the Tennessee Lady Vols can do to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And they won’t deserve it. Even if they do the unthinkable, which would in all likelihood involve the two quality wins we mentioned before and then an upset over the undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs, Tennessee would be 27-6.

Currently, there are five teams with two losses or fewer ahead of Tennessee in the RPI. Sure, this would inflate their strength of schedule. And they’d be in the conversation when it’s all said and done. But even if this happened, I still maintain that Mississippi State would be a 1-seed before Tennessee. They did beat Tennessee by a lot in Knoxville after all. As a result, a No. 2 seed is the best the Lady Vols can do this year. But they have to go far in the SEC Tournament to get that.