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Tennessee Lady Vols squarely on bubble in new bracketology projections

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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The Tennessee Lady Vols are now struggling to stay in the NCAA Tournament hunt. Here’s the women’s basketball Volunteers’ bracketology outlook.

And here we are. A situation we never thought we’d see has come to light, as the Tennessee Lady Vols are no in serious danger of not making the NCAA Tournament. Remember, before 2009, this is a program that never failed to make the Sweet Sixteen and never failed to have a player make the Final Four.

A loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs on the road shouldn’t have been such a killer for this team, and we know the RPI doesn’t look at margin of victory. But, even without Evina Westbrook, there’s no way to ignore the fact that Holly Warlick’s team lost by 28 points on Sunday.

Even with that big game to boost their schedule strength, Tennessee is outside of the Top 60 in the RPI at No. 61 with a 15-8 record, a 4-6 SEC record and the No. 44 ranked strength of schedule. How do you sell that to the selection committee when you only have one top 30 RPI win, against the Texas Longhorns on the road?

Well, some aren’t buying it. Charlie Creme of ESPN has the Lady Vols among his first four teams out now, joining the Michigan Wolverines, BYU Cougars and West Virginia Mountaineers. The Buffalo Bulls, Auburn Tigers, Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers are among the last four in.

Meanwhile, College Sports Madness has the Lady Vols among the last eight teams in. In their projections, Tennessee is a No. 9 seed and would face South Dakota in the first round. That first weekend would be played in Eugene as the No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks would play host with No. 16 seed Southern in there.

Fellow FanSided site High Post Hoops had the Lady Vols as one of their last four in, along with LSU, the Michigan Wolverines and the Missouri Tigers. Just behind them, outside the tournament, were the Buffalo Bulls, the BYU Cougars, the New Mexico Lobos and the Auburn Tigers.

In this bracketology, UT would be a No. 11 seed in the Portland region, with the Oregon Ducks as the No. 1 seed. They would be facing the No. 6 seed Arizona State Sun Devils in the first round, and the first weekend would be hosted by the No. 3 seed Iowa Hawkeyes, who would open against No. 14 seed VCU.

So the Tennessee Lady Vols are still in two of three NCAA Tournament bracketology projections, but they are just barely hanging on. With four straight games coming up against top 50 RPI teams, they have some serious work to do to get back into the NCAA Tournament. Those games are opportunities, including one at home against Auburn, a team they beat on the road and that Creme has ahead of them just barely in the tournament.

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They could certainly use a win in two of those games. In fact, they almost have to win two, as they close the season out at home against the Vanderbilt Commodores and Ole Miss Rebels on the road. Those two games leave nothing to gain for Rocky Top, so they absolutely have to be able to split two of four coming up just to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation.