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Tennessee basketball: Scenarios for Vols to win SEC regular season title

By Caleb Calhoun

ST LOUIS, MO - MARCH 10: Rick Barnes the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers gives instructions to his team against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the semifinals of the 2018 SEC Basketball Tournament at Scottrade Center on March 10, 2018 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO - MARCH 10: Rick Barnes the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers gives instructions to his team against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the semifinals of the 2018 SEC Basketball Tournament at Scottrade Center on March 10, 2018 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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5. Unlikely/far-fetched/impossible scenarios

Unlikely

-Vols lose two games, one to Kentucky

  • LSU loses three games
  • Kentucky loses three games

If Tennessee basketball loses two games to close out the year and one of them is to the Kentucky Wildcats, then they are in bad shape. They’ll need the LSU Tigers to have that three-loss scenario we mentioned on the earlier slide, with both road games being losses and then the Texas A&M Aggies at home being a loss unless the Vanderbilt Commodores shock them.

On top of that, Kentucky has to lose all of its other three games against teams who aren’t the Vols. That includes the Florida Gators and Arkansas Razorbacks at home. Even if they lose to the Ole Miss Rebels on the road, it’s highly unlikely they lose both home games.

Far-fetched

-Vols lose three games but not to Kentucky

  • LSU loses out
  • Kentucky loses out

This is Tennessee basketball’s final scenario to potentially win an outright SEC regular season championship. And it’s an almost impossible scenario. If the Vols lose three games but not to Kentucky, they can win it with Kentucky and the LSU Tigers losing out.

That means John Calipari’s team loses its final four games, including Tennessee, and it involves the previous scenario of them falling to Arkansas and Florida, both at home, along with the Ole Miss on the road. Oh, and LSU has to lose both road games plus be upset at home by both Texas A&M and, yes, Vanderbilt, who is still winless in conference play. That’s an almost impossible scenario.

Impossible

-Vols lose three games, one to Kentucky

-Vols lose out

If Tennessee basketball loses three games and one of them is to Kentucky, they have no chance of finishing ahead of the Wildcats outright. And if the two tie, UK would get the head to head for the top seed anyway. The Vols could finish ahead of the LSU Tigers, but that would require the other far-fetched scenario of them losing out.

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And since they’re already tied with UK and LSU while both have head to head advantages, it’s pretty obvious they can’t mathematically win the title outright if they lose out. LSU would at worst be tied with them with a head to head advantage, and that would automatically mean Kentucky beat them to have a better record overall. So these two scenarios make an outright SEC title impossible.

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