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Tennessee Lady Vols hanging on in some bracketology predictions

By Caleb Calhoun

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Smokey, the mascot of the Tennessee Volunteers, performs during a time out in the second half against the Wright State Raiders in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Smokey, the mascot of the Tennessee Volunteers, performs during a time out in the second half against the Wright State Raiders in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Ahead of the SEC Tournament, the Tennessee Lady Vols are firmly on the NCAA Tourney bubble. See where the women’s basketball Volunteers stand.

A bad loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores would seem to slash all of their hopes. But the Tennessee Lady Vols aren’t out of the picture just yet, and some people seem to be hinting that they may not even have to play their way in this week in the SEC Tournament in Greenville, S.C.

After finishing the regular season with an 18-11 record and 7-9 SEC record, Holly Warlick’s team hit rock bottom as a program with that home loss to Vanderbilt last weekend. It was to a team barely in the top 200 of the RPI who has finished the year 7-23 overall and 2-14 in the SEC after a Wednesday loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the conference tournament.

The Tennessee Lady Vols, meanwhile, are No. 64 in the RPI, which would project a team on the outside looking in unless they get an automatic bid by winning the SEC Tournament. What’s helping them stay afloat includes quality road wins at the Missouri Tigers and Texas Longhorns, a sweep of the Auburn Tigers, and other solid wins over the Belmont Bruins and Clemson Tigers.

However, that shouldn’t be enough to get them in the NCAA Tournament. Given the bracketology predictions, though, some people seem to think it will be, and that’s what we are going to take a look at now.

Of the main bracketology sites we look at, only one has the Lady Vols on the outside looking in at this moment. That one is fellow FanSided website High Post Hoops, which puts the UT as a First Four Out team along with Auburn, the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs.

Clemson, a team they beat, is about 10 spots ahead of them in the RPI and one of the Last Four In on this site. Along with Clemson are the Buffalo Bulls, Utah Utes and BYU Cougars. Buffalo and BYU are both in the top 35 of the RPI, but Utah is all the way down outside of the top 70. A quality win over the Stanford Cardinal is the big splash on their resume.

Other sites, however, still have UT in the tournament. Charlie Creme of ESPN has them among the Last Four In with Buffalo, TCU and the Indiana Hoosiers. They would be a No. 11 seed in his bracket, facing No. 6 seed South Dakota state in the first round. This first weekend would be hosted by the No. 3 seed Iowa Hawkeyes, who would face UT Arlington. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are the No. 1 seed on this side.

Meanwhile, College Sports Madness has Tennessee as one of their Last Eight In and a No. 11 seed facing DePaul in the first round. They would be in a first round bracket hosted by the No. 3 seed Oregon State Beavers, who would face Stephen F. Austin in the first round. The UCONN Huskies would be the No. 1 seed in this bracket.

Given their standing, the only way the Tennessee Lady Vols could possibly be projected into the NCAA Tournament is if these guys are projecting them to beat the LSU Tigers on Thursday in their first game in the SEC Tournament. Since LSU is outside of the top 60 of the RPI, it wouldn’t be huge on the quality win front, but it would boost their schedule strength at least above No. 40.

After that, they would face the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and that would easily shoot up their schedule strength. However, if they lose that one, as is likely, it’s hard to see those two games shooting up their schedule strength enough, even with an extra win, to get them into the range they need to make the tournament. But the experts disagree, so we’ll see what happens.