March Madness: 5 reasons Vols could lose to Purdue in Sweet 16

5. Matt Painter has more recent Sweet 16 experience.

It’s not like Rick Barnes hasn’t been to the Sweet 16. He made it five of seven years with the Texas Longhorns from 2002 to 2008, reached the Elite Eight twice and once made the Final Four. However, Barnes hasn’t been back since 2008.

Since then, Painter has taken the Purdue Boilermakers to the Sweet 16 five times including this year, and this is his third straight year making it. As a result, every one of his starters has Sweet 16 experience, and two have played in it twice. That’s a huge advantage over a team that has no players with Sweet 16 experience and a coach who hasn’t been back since the game changed.

March Madness is different than it was the last time Barnes took a team that far. It’s worth noting that Barnes’s weakness is sometimes being too player-dependent, and that could be a huge problem against a guy like Painter, who probably understands the right level of freedom now to give his players.

The only thing you could say is that Painter has never won a Sweet 16 game. We attribute that to the true fact that defense doesn’t go far in the tournament. But he has likely learned from his mistakes, and the hunger could favor him and his team.

It could also favor Purdue as a program, which is slightly closer to Louisville than Knoxville. Their fans’ desperation may create a bit of a home crowd advantage. We first called that an advantage for the Vols, but this is one game where the opposite could happen.