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Tennessee Lady Vols fall to NCAA Tournament bubble in bracketology

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 21: Tennessee Volunteers fans hold up a cardboard photo of women's basketball coach Pat Summitt during the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 21, 2012 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeated Connecticut 60-57. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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Four straight losses have taken their toll on the Tennessee Lady Vols. The women’s basketball Volunteers are now barely in the Big Dance.

With one more chance at a quality win this regular season, the Tennessee Lady Vols could be in some trouble. Two and a half weeks ago, Kellie Harper’s team was 17-4 and 7-1 in the SEC. However, they had a strength of schedule outside of the top 100 and only one quality win.

A five-game stretch against teams in the top 25 of either the RPI, the AP Poll or both was going to boost that schedule strength and prove where they belong. Well, only one of those games is left, and Rocky Top lost the previous four, which were to the South Carolina Gamecocks, Mississippi State Bulldogs, LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies.

Sunday’s two-point loss to A&M was the most inexcusable and made them look like a team that just doesn’t belong with the elite ones yet. Kellie Harper’s program currently only has one quality win, and it’s against that same LSU team at home by five. That’s the only top 50 RPI team they have beaten and one of only three top 100 RPI wins.

Right now, the Tennessee Lady Vols are No. 54 in the RealTime RPI. This is due to their No. 75 ranked strength of schedule and that one quality win we mentioned. At 17-8 overall and 7-5 in the SEC, these losses have taken a toll on their NCAA Tournament hopes.

Two of the three bracketology sites we cover have them among either the last four or last eight in. That they would be close to the bubble was a possibility three weeks ago, but the worst-case scenario has happened since then.

Charli Creme of ESPN is giving them the most love. Right now, they are a No. 9 seed in the Portland Region, hosted by the No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks, and they would face the No. 8 seed Drake Bulldogs in that first round.

College Sports Madness, meanwhile, has them among the Last Eight In. That projection still has them as a No. 9 seed, though, and still in a region hosted by No. 1 seed Oregon. They would play the No. 8 seed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles in the first round.

Finally, there’s fellow FanSided Site High Post Hoops. We have to give them credit. They were demanding the Tennessee Lady Vols prove themselves against tougher competition before they got a higher seed, and it looks like their skepticism was proven right.

High Post Hoops still has this team in the tournament. However, they are among the Last Four In, and they would be a No. 12 seed in the Fort Wayne, Ind. region, facing the No. 5 seed Florida State Seminoles in the first round and playing in a bracket hosted by the No. 4 seed DePaul Blue Demons. The Maryland Terrapins would be the No. 1 seed in this bracket.

Simply put, UT is fading because of their lack of quality wins. And Thursday night offers them their final chance to get one, as they visit the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are in the top 40 of the RPI and also ranked in the top 25 of both polls. This would be a very solid win.

After that, though, the Tennessee Lady Vols close out the season against three teams outside of the top 100 of the RPI in the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Missouri Tigers and the Auburn Tigers on the road. So their schedule strength is now projected to finish at No. 84.

To this point, the best thing you can say about this team is they have no bad losses, as every team that beat them is in the top 50 of the RPI. But they need some quality wins, and they now have no room for slipping up in those final outings.