Tennessee football: New projections for Vols between four and six wins

With their 10-game SEC-only schedule, Tennessee football Volunteers projections vary.

Before this revised schedule, projections for the 2020 Tennessee football ranged from six to nine wins. However, by adding the Auburn Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies while dropping all four non-conference teams, three of whom are non-Power Five teams, a winning record looks much harder.

Projections for Rocky Top’s season are ranging now from 4-6 to 6-4 with expectations of finishing third or fourth in the SEC still on the table. At this point, analytical projections are much less favorable to the Vols than projections by actual anlsysts.

Standing out above everybody else, the ESPN FPI’s updated projection of Tennessee football’s season has the Vols going 4-6, beating the Missouri Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Vanderbilt Commodores and Arkansas Razorbacks. Yes, it has the Vols losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks along with Auburn and Texas A&M.

Of course, three losses are likely penciled in across all projections no matter what: The Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. UT fans hope that Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Arkansas are penciled in wins. That leaves four remaining games for Jeremy Pruitt’s third team to try to get to .500.

Beyond the FPI, though, gambling odds don’t really favor the Vols. Collin Wilson of The Action Network has set UT’s win total projection at 4.67, meaning going 5-5 would be overachieving. To be fair, going 4-6 would be underachieving. But that’s a thin line.

Simply put, a winning season for the Vols is in uphill climb. Their best chance to get there while running the table would be winning at South Carolina, where the FPI gives them a 43 percent chance, and upsetting Texas A&M or Florida, both of whom they face at home.

Beyond the analytical approach, though, reporters, blogs, websites and magazine outlets appear to be much more fair to the Vols. Pete Fiutak of College Football News has them going 5-5, winning all four games the FPI projected them to win while also upsetting Texas A&M. However, that outlet still had Tennessee football losing at South Carolina.

Chris Low had the Vols going 6-4 while Mark Schlabach had them going 5-5 in their ESPN projections. Bud Elliott and Brad Crawford, meanwhile, both had the program going 6-4 this season in their 247Sports projections.

Obviously, it’s going to be a lot tougher for Tennessee football this year. Just as they are trying to take another step forward under Pruitt, this schedule happens. However, it’s also a major opportunity. After all, the Vols did beat Auburn on the road just two years ago, and they are clearly improving as a program.

As a result, a winning season would do wonders for these guys. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen, but the advanced metrics are not on their side. They need to hope the intangible faith in Pruitt that many analysts have will be enough.