Tennessee football projected at 5-5 by writer using SP+ spreads

Another projection has the Tennessee football Volunteers at five wins.

It’s hard for Tennessee football to secure any projection better than .500 when it comes to analytical breakdowns. The ESPN FPI has them set at 4-6 with the Kentucky Wildcats and South Carolina Gamecocks both being close losses.

Well, SP+ spreads also project a tough outlook for the Vols. Using the formula that factors in returning production, recent history and recruiting, Bill Connelly of ESPN set UT’s projected win total at five.

Connelly awarded .5 wins for tossup games, which are games in where the SP+ model would set the spread at seven and a half points either way. His model gave Tennessee football that 5-5 record despite the Vols coming in at No. 19 in last week’s SP+ national ranking. Here’s a bit of what Connelly said about Rocky Top.

"Tennessee is in a no-win situation this season. The Vols appeared in the AP Top 25, which caused plenty of scoffing — oh look, we’re overrating the Vols yet again — and they’re likely to finish pretty close to .500 against a brutal, SEC-only schedule. (Half their games are against teams in the SP+ top 11.) But going 5-5 or so would basically prove the Vols’ Top 25 bona fides."

UT really does have a brutal slate. The ESPN FPI said the same thing, ranking the Vols projected strength of schedule at No. 3. This is due to the Vols having to face three clear-cut top 10 teams in the Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide and two more teams with top 10 potential in the Auburn Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies.

Add in the fact that Jeremy Pruitt’s third team visits the South Carolina Gamecocks, who are actually No. 24 in the FPI rankings, and hosts the Kentucky Wildcats, who are No. 19 in the FPI and No. 21 in the SP+, and there’s no way around how brutal this schedule is. The analytics show it’s much tougher than it was last year.

Of course, this was the case before the SEC went to its 10-game conference-only plan. The Vols may not have played Auburn or Texas A&M in that slate, but they would have played the Oklahoma Sooners, another top 10 team.

Still, it definitely got tougher with the new plan. As a result, finishing above .500 would be a major accomplishment for Tennessee football, especially if Pruitt’s team is able to do it in the regular season without the help of an extra bowl game.