Tennessee football: ESPN FPI projects fewer than four wins

This metric is not high on the 2020 Tennessee football Volunteers.

Despite an improved team in every way, a much tougher schedule has dampened the outlook for Tennessee football when it comes to advanced metrics. None have the Vols doing better than .500, and many analysts have that as the best-case scenario for them this year.

Well, for one major metric, things have been getting worse every time they have been updated. At the beginning of this week, the ESPN Football Power Index updated its projections for Rocky Top, and the overall up and down record for each game in a vacuum is at 3-7, a drop from where it was previously by one game.

With a national ranking of No. 36, a No. 10 ranked strength of schedule is what is hurting Tennessee football. The FPI’s projected possible range of wins for UT goes from 3.8 to 6.2, meaning finishing above .500 would be a near miracle.

At the heart of the matter and the reasoning behind the change is two games that are effectively tossups. The FPI gives the Vols only a 46.8 percent chance to win their opener at the South Carolina Gamecocks and only a 48.1 percent chance to beat the Kentucky Wildcats at home.

Despite being ranked higher than USC, playing the game in Columbia, S.C. is having an effect on the outcome. Kentucky still manages to overcome the fact that it’s playing the Vols on the road by somehow being ranked 12 spots higher.

Now, those two games are effectively toss-up games to determine if Tennessee football can get to 5-5 or not. If they are to do better, their only other realistic chance at a win appears to be the Texas A&M Aggies, where they are given a 31.2 percent chance of an upset.

Every other game on their schedule is only at 20 percent or worse, and the Florida Gators are the only other team above 15 percent. The Auburn Tigers are at 12.1 percent, and Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are both set at under 10 percent. Simply put, this is a brutal path to a winning record for Rocky Top.

If there’s one thing that works in the Vols’ favor, though, it’s that road games, particularly early on, shouldn’t be much of a factor given the limited capacity plans for different stadiums. That should neutralize South Carolina’s advantage, which should make UT a slight favorite.

On top of that, there’s an intangible factor that can’t be measured whenever the Vols play the Kentucky Wildcats. As a result, those two toss-up games could very easily be wins. Tennessee football was given better than a 60 percent chance to beat the Missouri Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks and Vanderbilt Commodores, so they should be fine there.