Here are Caleb Calhoun’s Week 5 picks for the Tennessee football Volunteers, SEC and top 25.
In the second week of SEC games, as Tennessee football gets set to take on the Missouri Tigers, here are my predictions for this week’s conference and top 25 matchups. Last week, I was 8-1 straight up and 11-7 on gambling picks. That included going 6-3 against the spread and 5-4 on the over/under, and I got both of those right for the Vols’ win at the South Carolina Gamecocks.
South Carolina +18.5; Over 57.5
If not for one bad pick-six and a freshman mistake at the end, the South Carolina would have beaten Tennessee football. Although the Florida Gators are much better, Will Muschamp could still give them a scare. UF’s offense will still be able to score, but their defense is a concern, and USC has found something with Collin Hill. Florida wins, but South Carolina covers, and this hits the over.
Texas A&M +18; Over 52.5
Last week, the Alabama Crimson Tide allowed the Missouri Tigers to score a couple of touchdowns late. That will happen again. Bama is way better than the Texas A&M Aggies and will jump out to a huge lead. However, we know Jimbo Fisher never stops, so once Nick Saban calls off the dogs, a couple of late touchdowns allow A&M to cover and for the game to hit the over.
Kentucky -6; Under 61.5
Former Tennessee football head coach Lane Kiffin has a great offensive mind, but the Kentucky Wildcats are better than people think. Mark Stoops’ use of ball control and an elite defense will fare better against the Ole Miss Rebels’ offense than the Florida Gators’ defense. Meanwhile, UK will run down Ole Miss’ throat, dominating the game for a cover and an under hit.
Georgia -6.5; Under 45
People should question the Auburn Tigers’ offense after their win over the Kentucky Wildcats. It looks like they are continuing their tradition under Gus Malzahn: A major drop-off by a returning quarterback who beat the Alabama Crimson Tide the previous year. The Georgia Bulldogs, for all their issues, are dominant defensively. UGA wins and covers, and the game hits the under.
Mississippi State -17; Over 68.5
Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs should continue their momentum after a huge win over the LSU Tigers last week. They will score enough to cover, and the Arkansas Razorbacks’ offense with Feleipe Franks, Rakeem Boyd and Kendal Briles calling the plays, will look a lot better than it did against the Georgia Bulldogs. As a result, take the over.
Vanderbilt +21; Over 51
A horrible loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs showed that the LSU Tigers haven’t missed a beat offensively, but their defense is suffering without Dave Aranda. Derek Mason’s Vanderbilt Commodores showed last week they can exploit teams’ weaknesses to make it close. As a result, Vandy scores enough to cover and for this game to get the over while Vandy still wins.
Missouri +13; Over 48.5
Eliah Drinkwitz is a proven offensive mind, and he scored late twice last week against the Alabama Crimson Tide. As a result, he and the Missouri Tigers will give Tennessee football even more trouble and force a shootout to cover and hit the over. The Vols hold firm at Neyland Stadium to get to 2-0, but once again, Jeremy Pruitt’s team will struggle.