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Tennessee football lucked out with scheduled based on updated ESPN FPI

By Caleb Calhoun

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 11: Detailed view of the checkered endzone at Neyland Stadium during a game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Chattanooga Mocs on October 11, 2014 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee won the game 45-10. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 11: Detailed view of the checkered endzone at Neyland Stadium during a game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Chattanooga Mocs on October 11, 2014 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee won the game 45-10. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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A wave of transfers was wrecking Tennessee football throughout the first half of this year. However, thanks to some of their own additions and movement elsewhere, Josh Heupel’s Vols have now stabilized in many ways.

That reflected itself in the updated ESPN Football Power Index that came out on Thursday. UT came in at No. 47, up one spot from No. 48, where it was back in May. Staying in the top 50 given everything that has happened is great news for Rocky Top.

Even before that jump, Tennessee football’s projected win total was from 5.4 to 6.6 with an 80 percent chance of winning six games. Given everything that has happened to the program, just getting to 6-6 would be a great storyline Heupel’s first season.

What really helps the Vols is that they have eight home games this year, and every team they are above in the Football Power Index has to play them in Knoxville. That’s a huge luck of the draw, and it just so happens to be six teams that fit such a criteria.

Among SEC teams, the Vols are third from the bottom, with only the South Carolina Gamecocks and Vanderbilt Commodores behind them. They are lucky enough to face both of them on Rocky Top, as they are the closest team to them that’s behind them, a non-conference opponent in the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Just ahead of them among SEC teams are the Missouri Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats, at No. 46 and No. 40 respectively. Although UT faces both of them on the road, it’s safe to say they could be considered toss-ups, particularly Mizzou, since they are only one spot above the Vols.

Of the two teams ahead of the Vols who visit them this year, one is Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels, who come in at No. 20. That could also be a potential upset game for Heupel’s team. After all, Rocky Top had an above 41 percent chance of winning that game in the last projections before these updated rankings.

Obviously, the Alabama Crimson Tide, Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs are sure losses, but Alabama and Florida are road games, which is why the Vols lucked out. If you’ve got sure losses anyway, it’s best not to waste them on home games.

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The only way this slate could have worked out more for Tennessee football is if the Vols got Mizzou and Kentucky at home in place of Ole Miss and Georgia. However, these FPI rankings show just how good of a draw they got, and Heupel needs to take advantage of it his first year.

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