Tennessee football at Florida: Five best bets
3. Tennessee +19
Here is where things have been inconsistent. The line started this week with Florida favored by 20.5. It then moved down to 18, which was the same line against the Vols when they upset the Gators in The Swamp back in 2001. That remains the worst line in sports history. Anyway, it moved back up to 19 on Saturday, and that line is a bit too big.
Sure, Florida beat Tennessee football by at least 26 points two of the last three years. However, they only won last year’s game by 12, and Jeremy Pruitt is no longer head coach of the program. As a result, the 19-point spread is just a bit too much.
The Gators’ first two wins were by 21 and 22 points respectively against Group of Five programs. You have to think the Vols are at least three and four points better than them. That’s not the only reason to believe the Vols will cover this spread, though.
Florida hasn’t covered any spread above 14 points in at least 25 years. Sure, they have blown out the Vols during that time, but those spreads were actually closer. This is overhyping the mistakes Alabama made to allow Florida to remain close. That combined with their overconfidence is why they won’t cover.