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Tennessee football: Week 5 SEC and top 25 picks and bets

By Caleb Calhoun

Sep 26, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A general view of the parking area in front of the stadium, normally full of tailgaters and fans before the game between the Missouri Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A general view of the parking area in front of the stadium, normally full of tailgaters and fans before the game between the Missouri Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 25, 2017; Columbia, SC, USA; General view of before the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Clemson Tigers at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 25, 2017; Columbia, SC, USA; General view of before the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Clemson Tigers at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports /

Well, just like Tennessee football, I got hit with a dose of reality last weekend. Hey, my luck had to run out somehow, and that’s exactly what happened in my Week 4 predictions. The over/under was the only spot I could break even on bets. I was under .500 overall based on the WynnBET betting odds.

Week 4 performances

  • Outright: 6-4
  • Moneyline: 3-4; Lost $181 if $100 bet on every game (-25.8%)
  • Gambling record: 9-11 (4-6 against the spread; 5-5 over/under)

To be fair, though, this site is still doing well overall. The moneyline is where I’ve been strongest, as I nailed almost every toss-up game until last week, but my overall record on the spread and the over/under is 54.4 percent, so I’m above the profit margin for both.

2021 overall performances

  • Outright: 46-9
  • Moneyline: 28-8; +$784 profit if $100 bet on every game (+21.8%)
  • Gambling record: 49-41-2 (28-18 against the spread; 21-23-2 over/under)

It’s time to get back on track, though. All SEC teams are back in action, with 12 of the 14 playing each other. Two non-SEC top 25 games makes for 10 games to pick overall. Usually, we list games in the order they are scheduled with Tennessee football’s game last. However, we’re switching it up a bit here. Find out why in our Vols, SEC and top 25 picks for Week 5 of the 2021 season.

Troy Trojans (2-2, 0-1) at South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2, 0-2)

Saturday, Oct. 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET; Columbia, S.C.; SEC Network

Gambling odds:

  • Line: South Carolina -7
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Moneyline: South Carolina -280; Troy +220

Although this game isn’t first on the list, we’re putting it here because of how limited of a draw it will be. The South Carolina Gamecocks have woken up to reality under Shane Beamer, getting blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs and then losing a close one to the Kentucky Wildcats. They’re still searching for that first easy FBS win.

Apparently, the oddsmakers don’t think it will come this weekend against a Troy Trojans team that is 2-2 and just lost to the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks under third-year head coach Chip Lindsey. After beating the East Carolina Pirates by just a field goal, is another scare reasonable?

Prediction

Despite how low it is, the best bet is still the Under at Williams-Brice Stadium Saturday. Neither team has scored more than 21 points against an FBS team. However, the line is unfair to South Carolina. They played UK tough and did cover the spread against Georgia. Take them to cover here too and win by more than just a touchdown.

South Carolina: 24 Troy: 10 (South Carolina -7; Under 43.5)

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