At the start of the season, Tennessee football had four circled wins, one likely win and a toss-up game. Getting that toss-up game was their path to six wins and bowl eligibility in Josh Heupel’s first year. However, that toss-up game was against the Pittsburgh Panthers, a game they lost.
In order to get that sixth win, it meant the Vols would still have to run the table everywhere else but steal a game somewhere, either at the Missouri Tigers, at home against the Ole Miss Rebels or at the Kentucky Wildcats. They stole the first one of those games.
With last weekend’s 62-24 win at Mizzou, Tennessee football made up for its toss-up game loss in a huge way. However, the win was such a blowout, that now you have to start thinking about success potentially beyond six wins.
Could the Vols steal all three and get to 8-4? Don’t forget that Ole Miss just got blown out by Alabama, in worse fashion than the score looked, and they play them at home. Meanwhile, they get Kentucky the week after their bye, and they historically own Kentucky.
On the other hand, Kentucky is undefeated right now and just beat a Florida Gators team that beat the Vols 38-14. Kentucky could go from a likely loss to a circled loss, joining the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs on Rocky Top’s slate with that tag.
Meanwhile, they still have to take care of their one likely win, this Saturday against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Losing that one could revert back to expectations of not making a bowl. Speaking of likely or circled games, are the South Alabama Jaguars a circled win anymore? They are 3-1, and their only loss is by two to the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Simply put, while expectations could be reset to the possibility of going 8-4, they could also fall to 4-8. Likely games could always be losses or wins, and we have to reorganize them both ways if we’re going to be honest.
However, the prediction was always that UT would get better as time went on and they learned Heupel’s offense. The combination of that happening plus Hendon Hooker taking over at quarterback led to the offensive explosion at Mizzou that you have to think they’re going to keep up in the future.
Right now, let’s say South Alabama is still a circled win along with the Vanderbilt Commodores, although we may switch that label next week. South Carolina is a likely win, while Ole Miss and Kentucky are likely losses. Alabama and Georgia are sure losses.
Taking all that into account, Tennessee football’s range is from 5-7 to 8-4, and if everything plays out as expected, 6-6 is still the expectation. However, the possibility for 7-5 is greater than 5-7, and that’s a good position for the Vols to be in.