Tennessee football’s big advantage vs. Ole Miss: Much better defense

Numbers don’t lie. In fact, they usually prove a narrative to be truer than it already was. That’s the case for the big advantage Tennessee football should have this weekend when facing the Ole Miss Rebels. While two high-powered offenses go at it, the Vols’ key could be defense.

Look, Ole Miss overall has a better offense. UT’s offense is elite, and Josh Heupel has done a great job with it, but Lane Kiffin is doing a better job with his unit. That difference isn’t the same as the difference in defense, though.

While Ole Miss averages 46.2 points per game to Tennessee football’s 41.5, both of which are in the top 10 nationally, the Rebels give up 31 points per game, which is outside of the top 100, to the Vols’ 21.5., which is No. 37. Amidst all the talk of the Vols’ offense, the defense has done an amazing job through six games.

Now, skeptics may bring up the tempo Ole Miss runs to note that it’s more vulnerable to giving up points. However, while Ole Miss runs 76.4 plays a game, the Vols do run 75.2 plays a game, so they run almost the same tempo. Meanwhile, the Vols give up 0.7 fewer yards per play (4.9 to 5.6) and 0.1 fewer points per play (0.4 to 0.3), so they’re better in every way.

What about quality of competition? Obviously, by nature of playing two ranked teams instead of just one, Ole Miss has faced better offenses, haven’t they? After all, they had to face the Alabama Crimson Tide two weeks ago.

Well, although there is a difference, it’s not as stark as you might think. Ole Miss’ foes are averaging barely over 25 more yards a game (455.75 to 430.6), just over 0.2 yards per play (6.325-6.16) and just under three more points per game (35.425 to 32.66). That’s hardly a gigantic increase in competition.

Meanwhile, the Vols have faced the two best offenses among both teams, the Pittsburgh Panthers and Florida Gators. Both offenses average over 500 yards a game, and no Ole Miss opponent has averaged that yet.

A deeper dive, though, even further proves the Vols’ defense is better. Sure, Ole Miss’ competition is rougher, but the competition’s play doesn’t decrease as much against the Rebels’ defense as it does against the Vols.

There is a greater drop in points per game by teams when they play Tennessee football as opposed to teams when they play Ole Miss (6.82 to 0.9) and yards per play (0.95 to 0.537). Opponents actually get one more yard than their game-by-game averages of total offense when playing Ole Miss, but they get 53.2 fewer yards when playing the Vols.

It’s fair to say the Arkansas game skewed those stats, as there’d be a greater drop in points and total offense against Ole Miss than the Vols without that shootout. However, there’s still a greater drop in yards per carry against the Vols, and if you’re going to point out how Arkansas skewed stats, you have to mention Alabama skewing stats by calling off the dogs after going up 42-0.

Simply put, by any reasonable metric, Tennessee football’s defense is far superior to Ole Miss’ defense, and going into Saturday, that could be a huge advantage. Ole Miss is slightly better at forcing turnovers, though, so the Vols have to be careful on that front.