Tennessee basketball: Preseason AP ranking shows lack of faith in Rick Barnes

There’s a lot of excitement surrounding Tennessee basketball this year. Rick Barnes just brought in the greatest recruiting class in history, and the Vols return key players in John Fulkerson, Josiah-Jordan James, Victor Bailey Jr. and Santiago Vescovi.

However, a No. 2 recruiting class with those players and the addition of Auburn Tigers transfer Justin Powell resulted in UT starting the season down at No. 18 in the AP Poll. There’s a reason for that. Sports writers have no faith in Rick Barnes’ ability to coach one-and-dones.

Last year, Tennessee basketball lost just one starter and added a top five recruiting class with two five-stars in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. That combined with Bailey being eligible to play resulted in the Vols being ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP Poll.

UT stumbled to an 18-9 season and was eliminated in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. This year, the Vols actually have a better recruiting class, as they went from two five-stars and a four-star to two five-stars, two four-stars and two three-stars, but they will start the year with a lower AP rank than last year.

Sure, the Vols lost three starters. However, the Duke Blue Devils also lost three starters, all of whom happened to be their three leading scorers. They actually missed the NCAA Tournament last year, and every recruiting ranking has the Vols ahead of them. Duke is ranked No. 9, though.

You could make the case for transfers. That’s how the Kentucky Wildcats can justify being ahead of the Vols at No. 10. However, Duke’s two additions are Theo John, who averaged eight points a game with the Marquette Golden Eagles, and Bates Jones, who averaged two and a half points with the Davidson Wildcats.

In no way could that outdo the value Powell brings to UT as a transfer. The only difference is that analysts have more faith in Mike Krzyzewski, as he enters his final year on the job, to coach his elite freshmen than they do Barnes.

Quite honestly, they make sense with their point. Barnes’ history shows he’s always been better at developing talent than coaching one-and-dones. His tenure with the Texas Longhorns was loaded with surprisingly disappointing first-round exits a year after taking a young team deep in the NCAA Tournament, adding five-star talent and losing nobody.

Barnes’ focus has always been developing players. regardless of how elite they are, and that sometimes limits an elite freshman’s game. It gets them more ready for the NBA, and that’s why many players pick Barnes, but it can hurt you if you’re trying to win with freshman phenoms.

By far Barnes’ most successful season with Tennessee basketball was 2018-2019, when the Vols were No. 1 in the nation for three weeks. Every member of UT’s starting five was a three-star recruit that year. However, they were all juniors and seniors, and it showed.

This year, the Vols have some experience back, even with Yves Pons gone. Bailey will likely be the main scorer, and Fulkerson will once again be a force in the post. Vescovi and James are both solid off-guard players.

Still, the season will be defined by how Barnes coaches Kennedy Chandler at point guard and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield at power forward. Tennessee basketball has a lot of talent, but Barnes has to prove to analysts what he can do with those two guys.