Tennessee football future being sabotaged by NCAA prolonging investigation

Everything is in place for Tennessee football to return to prominence in 2022. The Vols could cash in on the South Carolina schools being down, they have a schedule set up perfectly for them to have a hot start, and they might have a good first season by Josh Heupel to sell.

However, all of that is being held up now because of one issue. The NCAA still hasn’t finished its investigation into the Vols for the allegations that got Jeremy Pruitt fired at the end of last season. This investigation is the only explanation for recent recruiting struggles.

Right now, Tennessee football’s class is ranked No. 31 across the board. Depending on the service you go by, that’s between No. 10 and No. 12 in the SEC alone. Five-star defensive lineman Walter Nolen, the No. 1 to No. 3 player nationally depending on the service, would boost the class with a commitment, which many are predicting, but he’s the last major prospect on UT’s board.

As a result, the Vols will not have the recruiting class that a coach needs to succeed in the SEC after Heupel’s first year on the job. Given everything that’s in place for them to return to prominence next year, that could be the one issue that holds them back. It’s a big one.

Ask Derek Dooley about the impact NCAA investigations can have on a program. He got a top 10 class his first year on Rocky Top just two weeks on the job. However, his next two were outside of the top 10 and cost him depth-wise.

Why did that happen? Well, the entire recruiting period for the 2011 class and most for the 2012 class came while the Vols were under investigation for secondary violations committed under Lane Kiffin. UT is currently under investigation for even more serious violations, one that could wreck their future. By not issuing a ruling, the NCAA is sabotaging a perfect setup for the program.

We’ve written extensively about what’s working in the Vols’ favor for next year. You start with the programs that will be down and have to compete with them in recruiting, in particular the Clemson Tigers and the South Carolina Gamecocks. UT destroyed South Carolina this year, and Clemson seems like its on the decline under Dabo Swinney. Its class is outside of the top 10 this year.

The emergence of these two programs, South Carolina first under Steve Spurrier and Clemson later under Swinney, didn’t allow the Vols to poach talent from that state anymore. Their entire 1998 starting defensive line was from South Carolina. That contributed to their downfall in a big way, and now they have a chance to get back that advantage given the trends.

Meanwhile, the Vols’ schedule is incredibly favorable next year. Their non-conference Power Five game is at the Pittsburgh Panthers, and that’s a team that will likely have a major drop-off given all the talent it’s losing after this year.

When it comes to SEC play, Tennessee football’s rotating West opponent will be at the LSU Tigers, a program that will be under the leadership of a new head coach. The Florida Gators will head to Knoxville with Dan Mullen on the hot seat as well. With Pitt, LSU and Florida as their only Power Five foes through five games, a 5-0 start is on the table.

Then there’s the success Heupel is having this year. He’s all but assured to reach six wins, and if he can somehow upset the Kentucky Wildcats or Georgia Bulldogs, he’ll have a winning season his first year on the job. Given all the issues that were facing the program, that would be a major selling point, and don’t ignore the possibility of UT upsetting Kentucky.

All of these things set the Vols up perfectly to cash in for 2022. They are getting lightning in a bottle, but the final piece to that puzzle is elite recruiting. Heupel was never considered a superb recruiter, but the classes can’t be this bad if the Vols are going to succeed long-term.

Given how the Vols usually fall out of bed and get top 25 classes, there are clearly other factors at play holding Heupel back as well. Those factors all come down to this NCAA investigation, and even if there are no penalties, prolonging it is the one thing that could cost this program to cash in on perfect timing for next year.

At this point, Tennessee football would be better off if the NCAA just came out with a one-year bowl ban. Even a two-year bowl ban would be better than no ruling. That way, Heupel can sell a blueprint for the future. However, there’s no blueprint until this investigation is over. The NCAA needs to bring it to an end.