Does Tennessee football have a shot at finishing 2021 in top 25?
If finishing in the top 25 requires a 9-4 record at minimum, Tennessee football has no realistic shot of getting there. Josh Heupel’s first team would have to beat the Georgia Bulldogs, and that’s just not happening this year.
However, there is a path to 8-5, one that would still involve a huge upset. If that happens, would the Vols have a case to make for a top 25 finish? It depends on what everybody else does, but honestly, they just might.
Obviously, the elephant in the room is that Tennessee football has to beat the Kentucky Wildcats on the road this weekend. However, the Vols did get a bye to prepare, and they historically own that program. Is it crazy to think they can’t pull that off?
If they do, they will have pulled off a road win against a top 20 team for the first time since 2006, when they beat the Georgia Bulldogs 51-33 in Athens, Ga. at Sanford Stadium. Assuming they do that, and assuming they do what everybody expects them to do, which is beat the South Alabama Jaguars and Vanderbilt Commodores to close out the season, they’ll be 7-5 at the end of the year.
Then there is the postseason factor. Assuming the NCAA doesn’t bring down the hammer on them, the only thing left for them to do is win their bowl game. With Heupel’s offensive team having a few weeks to prepare for a matchup, you have to think they have a chance.
As a result, 8-5 is on the table. Then you ask the question, is 8-5 enough for a top 25 finish? Two years ago, Tennessee football finished 8-5 and on a six-game winning streak but didn’t finish the season in the top 25. However, they had no top 25 wins, and they had two Group of Five losses, at home to the Georgia State Panthers and BYU Cougars to open the season.
An 8-5 campaign this year would include losses to Georgia and Alabama, two likely College Football Playoff teams, along with the Pittsburgh Panthers, who look like the favorite to win the ACC Championship this year despite their recent loss to the Miami Hurricanes. That’s three not-bad losses on their resume.
The other two would be the Ole Miss Rebels, who were in the top 25 when they played UT and will likely finish there, and the Florida Gators. Now, UF is 4-4 and looks mediocre now, but they don’t have a ranked foe the rest of the way, so they could also easily finish 9-4 and in the top 25.
Taking all of that into account, this UT team could have five losses, all of which were to top 25 teams and three of which were to CFP or conference championship teams. That’s a much better resume than the 2019 program had. Add in a potential top 25 win this weekend, and it looks dramatically better overall.
Next. Tennessee at Kentucky: 10 keys to the game. dark
If that happens, Tennessee football has a major selling point going forward. Heupel will have had a strong first season despite inheriting a 3-7 team that suffered a wave of transfers. It could give him a huge recruiting selling point and a ton of momentum for next year, so watch out for what happens with this program. It all comes down to this weekend.