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Tennessee football at Kentucky: Five last-minute predictions for Week 10 matchup

By Caleb Calhoun

Oct 2, 2021; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel reacts during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2021; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel reacts during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 25, 2021; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Volunteers place kicker Chase McGrath (40) misses the field goal against the Florida Gators during the second quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2021; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Volunteers place kicker Chase McGrath (40) misses the field goal against the Florida Gators during the second quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

3. No field goals will be made.

Yes, the special teams storyline takes up two last-minute predictions. Kentucky’s one blocked field goal lends itself to no field goals being made. However, trends for both teams throughout the season also suggest neither team will make a field goal.

The biggest trends are red zone and third down defenses and offenses. Offenses have a 76.67 percent touchdown rate against Tennessee football’s defense in the red zone, and they have a a 68 percent touchdown rate against Kentucky’s defense. Both teams are outside of the top 100 nationally when it comes to those stats.

Furthermore, the Vols’ red zone offense scores touchdowns 69.7 percent of the time, and Kentucky’s offense scores touchdowns 75 percent of the time. Both red zone offenses are in the top 30 on that front. That alone is enough to say no field goals will be made.

On third downs, teams convert 45.7 percent of the time against UT and 41.7 percent of the time against UK, leaving both outside of the top 90. They also both have top 30 third down offenses. These types of conversions combined with Chase Mcgrath and Matt Ruffolo each having missed two field goals and Ruffalo having missed two extra points is why nobody will make a field goal.

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