With the chance to secure its second winning season in five years, Tennessee football closes out its first regular season under Josh Heupel against its in-state SEC rival. The Vanderbilt Commodores will travel to Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., to add another chapter to this storied series that dates back to 1892.
UT enters this one after clinching bowl eligibility last week thanks to a 60-14 win over the South Alabama Jaguars, the second time this year the Vols hit the 60-point threshold. At 6-5 and 3-4 in the SEC, this won’t only guarantee them a winning record, but it’ll also clinch them a .500 SEC record and third-place finish in the SEC East.
On the other side, Vanderbilt comes in with a first-year head coach in Clark Lea and on a six-game losing streak. At 2-9 and 0-7 in the SEC, a Power Five or SEC win would have been an accomplishment to build off of given what Lea inherited. This is their last chance for that.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers Week 13 odds
On the WynnBET Week 13 betting odds, the Vols are a 31.5-point favorite in this regular season finale for both teams. There is no moneyline for the game, which is set for 3:45 p.m. ET and will be televised on SEC Network. The over/under is set at 63.5.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers prediction
Yes, the Vols will win. Let’s get that out of the way. The question is this 31.5-point spread. Vanderbilt has a long history of playing UT close given the nature of the series, even throughout the tradition of Rocky Top dominating this team.
During the 1990s, when UT had Peyton Manning, they were in the top 10 when they faced Vandy in 1995, 1996 and 1997, and Vandy was 2-8, 2-8 and 3-7 respectively entering those games. However, the Vols only won them 12-7, 14-7 and 17-10 respectively.
It’s also worth noting that despite Tennessee football being on a two-game winning streak in the series, Vanderbilt has won five of the past nine, and the Vols haven’t won a game in the series by this much since 2003. Simply put, the history is on Vandy’s side.
Then there’s the nature of this year. Vandy was a red zone interception away from only losing by one score to the Ole Miss Rebels last week. They only trailed the Missouri Tigers by two late in the fourth quarter, and they had South Carolina beat until the Gamecocks switched quarterbacks on their final possession, going on a game-winning drive to win 21-20.
All of this seems to suggest the Vols won’t cover. However, then there’s the breakdown of this year’s UT team. Despite what we said about the series history, none of those games were with an offensive-minded coach like Heupel.
Rocky Top has played just three teams with losing records. Those are their three non-Power Five foes, and they won all of them by at least 32 points, covering that 31.5-point spread. Then they have a Power Five win over that same Mizzou team that Vandy hung with by 38 points.
Heupel’s team also beat South Carolina by 25 points, and Ole Miss was really banged up against Vandy. As a result, this spread is truly a toss-up, and it’s hard to know which way it will go. With both teams having a lot to play for, it could get even more interesting.
Recent competitive play by Vandy and the Thanksgiving holiday knocking the Vols’ offense a bit off rhythm. However, its four games won by 32 or more points just happened to be all its games against either a non-Power Five teams or a Power Five team that gives up over 30 points a game.
Well, Vanderbilt gives up more than 30 points a game. As a result, there’s no reason to believe this Tennessee football offense will let up now. The Vols are still completely healthy and better than ever. Take Tennessee -31.5 on the spread, in a bold pick, and with their offense, also take the Over 63.5. The score will look something like this: Tennessee 52 Vanderbilt 17.
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