Tennessee football: Ranking potential bowls by likelihood
Heading into the season, there were theoretically 17 bowl possibilities for Tennessee football. There are 10 official bowl tie-ins, but then there are two bowls with purely at-large berths and the other five New Years Six bowl games in addition to the Sugar Bowl. Of course, it was pretty obvious where UT wouldn’t be going this year.
Anyway, with a 7-5 finish, the Vols could actually end up in a lot of places. Where they go will depend heavily on what happens this weekend, mostly in the SEC Championship game but also in the other conference championship games.
Tied for fifth in SEC record with three other teams, Tennessee football would at worst get its eighth choice at a bowl bid. However, the Vols could get something higher depending on how everything shapes out. Let’s see what that all looks like here. These are the five tiers of the Vols’ least to most likely bowl appearances.
Tier 5: Not happening
College Football Playoff or New Years Six bowl (Dec. 30-Jan. 1)
Not making the College Football Playoff or New Years Six Bowl games are obvious. They require no explanation.
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22; Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, Texas) or Independence Bowl (Dec. 18; Independence Stadium; Shreveport, La.)
Technically, the Armed Forces Bowl and Independence have at-large berths, but they do have other loose tie-ins. For the Armed Forces, it’s if the Army Black Knights have a winning record, which they do. The BYU Cougars are for the Independence Bowl.
Now, the American Athletic Conference and Conference USA are also in line for the Armed Forces Bowl, but it’s just C-USA for the Independence Bowl, so with BYU at 10-2 and potentially accepting a New Years Six bowl, an SEC team could land there. However, the payout for that one is just over $2 million, and the Vols can do better.
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 28; Protective Stadium; Birmingham, Ala.) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 23; Raymond James Stadium; Tampa,Fla.)
The Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls have SEC tie-ins, but both have payouts of under $1.5 million. There are eight other tie-ins better than this one with better payouts, and Tennessee football will be in the eighth-best bowl at worst. As a result, neither of these are happening.