Tennessee football: Brian Kelly to LSU may send Nick Saban running, helping Vols

It’s no secret that Tennessee football has had an unfair disadvantage having to play the Alabama Crimson Tide from the West every year with Nick Saban running the show. That’s been an automatic interdivisional loss that nobody else could have.

However, Brian Kelly going to the LSU Tigers may change that. For reasons we’ll get into later, Kelly is going to turn LSU into a dynasty. It’ll be one on the level of what Saban has built in recent years at Alabama. The setup is just too good.

If Kelly builds a dynasty, then the Florida Gators get the bad break Tennessee football has had over the years, having to face the new dynasty for its interdivisional SEC West opponent. Of course, with the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners joining the league, all this could change anyway, but what’s clear is UT won’t be facing LSU every year.

Now, the Vols will still likely face Alabama every year. However, Kelly’s arrival may send Saban packing. Look, Saban is 70 years old. He’s accomplished all there is to accomplish, and his track record shows he’s able to identify program trends.

Alabama is set up nicely for a good coach to build a dynasty. It’s one of the top five places to do that in the country. Saban has cashed in on that, and while LSU is a better job, Saban has always been able to run the show in the SEC West because he knew he was a better coach than Ed Orgeron or Les Miles.

However, LSU is by far the easiest job to win at in the nation. Orgeron and Miles won titles there because of how easy it is to win at that school, but neither are great coaches. It’s the only Power Five school in its state, and Louisiana is sixth in terms of active players put in the NFL with 120, according to Pro Football Reference.

Only Ohio has more active NFL players per in-state Power Five school in the NFL, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are the only Power Five school in that state, and Ohio has 141 players in the pros. Florida, California, Texas and Georgia all have more, but divided by the number of Power Five schools in the state, the number is less.

Anecdotally, while Ohio State is the only school to compete with LSU on this front, it has more competition. The Michigan Wolverines and, ironically, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, which Kelly just left, are close enough and have enough prestige to be able to come into Ohio and steal a couple of elite players out of there each year.

All of this is why Saban knew to go to LSU back in 2000. The program had been dormant for decades, but he saw a sleeping giant. SEC TV contracts were starting to neutralize the revenue advantages schools like Tennessee football had to be able to recruit nationally, and talent within proximity to the program was about to be more important once again.

Saban studied all of this and knew what was happening. He bailed on the Michigan State Spartans after a 9-2 season, went to LSU and used the new revenue to simply wall off the state of Louisiana, which turned LSU into an SEC Championship team two years later and a national championship team four years later.

After going to the NFL, Saban saw another opportunity. Alabama was coming off probation. They had talent. The SEC West was loaded with mediocre coaches. After all, the Arkansas Razorbacks had just won the division. Knowing this and the advantages Alabama provides from a recruiting front, Saban jumped, cashing in on his chance to build a dynasty.

With Kelly at LSU, Saban, for the first time is faced with a program that’s easier to win at in his own division having a really good coach. This may be where he cuts and runs. After all, he could retire in a couple of years before this costs his program long-term, and nobody will ever know what would have happened. Tennessee football then never has to face him again.

Detractors might point out that Saban is already dealing with this since Jimbo Fisher went to the Texas A&M Aggies. However, A&M is not as easy of a place to win at as LSU or even Alabama. Texas has more high school football talent, but the competition to land that talent is too fierce.

Never has Saban faced the competition he’s about to face in the West with Kelly at LSU. His history shows that he bases his job moves on what that that competition looks like, and that history suggests he’ll bail on Alabama real soon. Tennessee football should celebrate.