Everybody can get excited about it. The Tennessee Lady Vols have a chance to prove something big Saturday as they host the No. 3 ranked Stanford Cardinal. If Kellie Harper’s team pulls this off, they will truly have taken that next step.
The problem is they should already be viewed as the team that has taken that next step. UT comes into this game 9-0 with tons of impressive wins, but somehow they are just ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll and No. 9 in the Coaches Poll.
On the other hand, Stanford is 6-2 and ranked No. 3 in both polls. When you factor the two together, Tara VanDerveer’s team should be heading into Knoxville, Tenn. Saturday hoping to reclaim a spot the Tennessee Lady Vols already have.
This shouldn’t be a game where UT guns for Stanford’s spot. If you want to say No. 9 or No. 7 is the best position the Lady Vols should be in right now, that’s fair. However, Stanford being up where they are at the same time makes no sense. Let’s break this down.
Right now, Rocky Top’s best win is over the Texas Longhorns. They are Texas’ only loss, as Vic Schaefer’s team is 7-1, ranked No. 11 in the AP Poll and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll. Their second best win is over the South Florida Bulls. USF is ranked No. 16 in both polls.
Ready for this? USF and Texas just so happen to be the two teams that have beaten Stanford this year. Texas beat Stanford at Stanford. Simply put, The Tennessee Lady Vols are undefeated and have beaten two teams that beat Stanford but are somehow as many as six spots below them.
Now, to be fair, Stanford has two good wins, one over the Indiana Hoosiers when they were No. 4 and another over the Maryland Terrapins when they were No. 2. However, UMD now has three losses, and Indiana has two.
Wouldn’t a one-loss Texas and a three-loss USF be better overall quality wins than a two-loss Indiana and three-loss UMD? Before you question USF and UT, it’s worth repeating that they actually beat this Stanford team voters somehow see at No. 3.
When you add in record and the head-to-head advantage by association, there’s no reason for Harper’s team to be so many spots below Stanford. This isn’t just proven anecdotally with a couple of wins on each side either.
Based on the RealTime RPI data, UT has the No. 6 ranked strength of schedule in the nation. Stanford’s is No. 15. Now, to be fair, Stanford is higher in the NET rankings, but just going by that is as flawed as it used to be to go just by the RPI.
What’s really happening here is people can’t look past the Tennessee Lady Vols struggling to put teams away and the fact that they are playing without Rae Burrell. However, in spite of everything they have fought through, all of that will finally be pushed aside if they win Saturday. Then they’ll be taken legitimately, something that should have happened a while ago.