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Tennessee Lady Vols bracketology: No. 1 seed still within reach despite loss at Auburn

By Caleb Calhoun

Jan 31, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Lady Vols head coach Kellie Harper and guard Jordan Walker (4) during the second half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Thompson-Boling Arena. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 31, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Lady Vols head coach Kellie Harper and guard Jordan Walker (4) during the second half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Thompson-Boling Arena. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Last week’s loss by the Tennessee Lady Vols to the Auburn Tigers seemed devastating at the time. They had just been named one of the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s top 16 rankings, they were in the top five of both polls, and every bracketology projection had them as a No. 1 seed.

However, that loss didn’t completely wreck their season. In fact, their drop was significantly less dramatic than it seemed like it would be after losing to a winless SEC team on the road. They are still 19-2 and 8-1 in SEC play after all.

Kellie Harper’s program fell just to No. 7 in both polls, a three-spot drop in the AP Poll and a two-spot drop in the Coaches Poll. The Tennessee Lady Vols actually remained a No. 1 seed caliber team in the RealTime RPI, where they came in at No. 4. A No. 7 ranked strength of schedule is what helps them there.

Unfortunately for UT, in the NCAA NET rankings, Auburn is a Quadrant 2 loss, the first questionable loss they have suffered under Harper. That knocked them down to No. 9, which would make them a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance.

With a low range of a No. 3 seed and a high range of a No. 1 seed based on all the credible rankings, bracketology experts are splitting the baby for now. Yes, it looks like Rocky Top is staring a No. 2 seed right in the face.

Charlie Creme of ESPN has them as a No. 2 seed in the Wichita region, where the Louisville Cardinals are the top seed. They would host a first-weekend bracket with the No. 15 seed Mercer Bears, who they would play in the first round, the No. 7 seed Ohio State Buckeyes and Harper’s old program, the Missouri State Lady Bears, as a No. 10 seed.

College Sports Madness has the Tennessee Lady Vols as a No. 2 seed as well but in a region where the N.C. State Wolfpack, ironically Harper’s former team before Missouri State, are the No. 1 seed. They would play the No. 15 seed Fairfield Stags in the first round and host a weekend-opening bracket with the No. 7 seed Kansas State Wildcats and No. 10 seed Creighton Bluejays.

Obviously a No. 1 seed would be the goal, and UT has a chance to quickly move up the ladder. Their schedule is about to give them a chance to significantly improve their resume, as they are about to face three straight top 40 RPI teams and three straight top 70 NET teams.

After visiting the Florida Gators Thursday night, UT will face two straight teams in the top 20 of the RPI and in the top 50 of the NET rankings. Highlighted in that is Sunday’s game at the UConn Huskies, who are in the top 10 of every ranking. They will then face the Missouri Tigers. Don’t forget that the South Carolina Gamecocks are still on the slate too.

The Tennessee Lady Vols have to address some issues though if these are to be opportunities for them. They didn’t just lost to Auburn, but on Monday they had to come back from 13 down at home to beat the Arkansas Razorbacks in overtime, and that comeback only happened after Arkansas’s leading scorer, Makayla Daniels, left the game with an injury.

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What’s plaguing UT right now is a lack of depth in the post game. Keyen Green’s season-ending injury is a killer, and Tamari Key and Alexus Dye have to conserve their energy on offense as a result. Harper has to figure out how to offset that injury soon, or all of these games will be losses.