Tennessee football: SP+ projection that has Vols in top 10 suggests Pittsburgh will define season

There was plenty of excitement already surrounding Tennessee football entering Josh Heupel’s second year on the job, but an analytical early ranking for 2022 took that excitement to a new level. Heupel could potentially have the best season in years at UT.

Rocky Top is No. 9 in the SP+ early 2022 projections by Bill Connelly of ESPN. Returning projection, recent history and recruiting are all factors into these rankings, and the Vols’ returning talent from a 7-6 team is so impressive that it pushed them into the top 10.

More importantly, though, based on these rankings, Tennessee football’s season will actually be defined by a non-conference matchup. The Vols’ trip to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second week of the season could determine if they have a 5-0 start or not.

Pitt is No. 13 in these rankings despite losing Kenny Pickett. Pat Narduzi’s team just won the ACC Championship and also beat the Vols in Knoxville, Tenn., last year, so lots of things are working in their favor. UT is slightly higher but is playing this game on the road, making it a toss-up for now.

Outside of that matchup, the only Power Five foes the Vols play in their first five games are at home against the Florida Gators and at the LSU Tigers. Both teams are undergoing new head coaches. Although LSU is on the road, they are No. 45 in the SP+ ranking, and while Florida is No. 18, they have to play the Vols at Neyland Stadium.

With the Ball State Cardinals and the Akron Zips on the slate within the first five games as well, Tennessee football should be destined for a 5-0 start. They’ve only started 5-0 three times over the past 51 years: 1992, 1998 and 2016. Doing it again in his second year on the job would create a ton of momentum for the program.

Standing out more than that top 10 ranking is the fact that only two teams on UT’s schedule are ahead of them. One of them, the No. 3 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, will face the Vols on the road, although that’s still likely a circled loss. Heupel’s team has to travel to the other team, the No. 2 ranked Georgia Bulldogs.

That means if they can get past Pitt, not only is a 5-0 start on the table, but a 10-2 season is going to be expected. The Kentucky Wildcats are the only other top 25 team on the schedule that we haven’t named in these rankings, and they have to head to Neyland.

If they went 10-2 Heupel’s second year, taking advantage of the way all the other programs are rebuilding, they could catch fire on the recruiting trail and in the transfer portal. Given what Heupel did on the trail this past year with everything working against them, the potential is through the roof with that type of success.

Of course, there are the historical factors of UT being unable to beat Florida and Death Valley being a brutal place to play. However, in general, things on paper suggest Tennessee football could easily start 5-0 and generate a ton of momentum. It will all come down to Pitt. That game will define if they have a great season or just a chance at a decent season.