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By Joe Summers
The 19-6 #16 Tennessee Volunteers take a five-game winning streak into Arkansas today when they take on the 20-6 #23 Razorbacks at 4:00 p.m. EST. WynnBET has the Volunteers as 2-point underdogs and +115 on the moneyline (bet $10 to profit $11.50) while the over/under is set at 138.5 for this Tennessee vs Arkansas matchup.
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This is how we’re betting this game:
Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction
Oh baby. We’ve got a true SEC showdown in one of the best games of the day. Tennessee has won eight of nine and is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in that stretch while Arkansas has won 10 of 11 and is 10-1 ATS over that time frame. Both teams are elite defensively, ranking 8th and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency respectively, and improving offensively, setting up a fantastic game that will go a long way in the SEC Conference race.
The Volunteers will need to avoid a let-down performance after a dominant win against Kentucky. They shot 8/17 from beyond the arc and 20/23 from the free throw line. For a team that shoots just 34.8% from three on the season, we should expect a bit of a drop-off there.
But they’ll still have a significant advantage shooting against an Arkansas offense that ranks 287th in 3-point shooting percentage. The Razorbacks prefer to score in transition and at the free throw line, where their 27th-highest offensive free throw rate allows them to generate points while getting the opposition in foul trouble.
Tennessee is only 244th nationally in free throw rate, so their performance against Kentucky was an outlier in both three-point shooting and free throws. In a prime let-down spot, I think it’s likely we see regression in both those categories and that’ll make it tough to beat an Arkansas squad that’s absolutely rolling.
I have a rule in life not to step in front of moving trains, thus I can’t step in front of the Razorback train that’s speeding through the country right now. I’m taking Arkansas -2 (-110) to improve to 11-1 ATS in their last dozen in a classic let-down spot for the Volunteers, but think it’ll be a close one.
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