Tennessee football: Lane Kiffin over Josh Heupel on coaching lists is egregious

Very few people have had a resume oversold to the public the past 15 years like Lane Kiffin. Tennessee football is one of the biggest victims of buying into that, having hired him after firing Phillip Fulmer to make a splash back in 2008.

As a result of that resume, it seems like conventional wisdom to have Kiffin ahead of current UT head coach Josh Heupel in coaching rankings and coaching potential. However, outside of more experience, that doesn’t mesh with the facts. Multiple rankings this week ignored those facts.

Austin Nivision of 247Sports on Tuesday named Kiffin as one of his coaches who could win a national championship soon. Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports improved Josh Heupel by 19 spots to No. 33 from last year in his ranking of all 65 Power Five head coaches. Kiffin, however, made his top 25, improving by 12 spots to No. 18.

Both are wrong, but Nivision’s take is the most egregious. It’s prisoner of the moment. Yes, Kiffin went 10-3 last year and beat Tennessee football while the Vols went 7-6 under Heupel. However, all signs point to Heupel being in a better position this year.

Heupel returns the vast majority of his team, most notably quarterback Hendon Hooker. Kiffin lost a ton of production on the other side, including his star quarterback in Matt Corral along with his leading receiver, leading rusher, leading tackler and leader in sacks. On top of that, by all accounts, the Vols have a significantly better class coming in.

If all signs point to Kiffin having reached his ceiling for at least a few years at Ole Miss and Heupel’s future looking brighter with Tennessee football, the only reason you’d have Kiffin above Heupel in terms of who would win a national title first would be based on resume. That resume is wildly overrated.

Let’s start by just comparing what they did with the Vols. Both Kiffin and Heupel went 7-6 their first year on Rocky Top, Kiffin’s only year. However, Heupel inherited a much more disastrous situation, as a third of the roster transferred out when he took over.

Kiffin was fired by the USC Trojans. Heupel has never been fired. In 10 years as a head coach, he has just three 10-win seasons. Heupel has two 10-win seasons in just four years as a head coach, and he actually has a 12-win season. Kiffin has never gone over 11.

Comparing what they did in Group of Five play, Kiffin won two Conference USA Championships with the Florida Atlantic Owls. However, Heupel had an undefeated regular season and with the UCF Knights, and one American Athletic Championship is worth three C-USA titles when you look at level of competition.

Want to point to negative years Kiffin had? He went 5-7 at Florida Atlantic in his second year. Heupel never had a losing season at UCF. There’s still that 7-6 season he had at USC too, his third year on the job, despite a preseason No. 1 ranking. Heupel has never underachieved like that.

In terms of winning percentage, Kiffin is 76-41 with a .650 winning percentage. Heupel, meanwhile, is 35-14 with a .714 winning percentage. Again, the only selling point you have for Kiffin over Heupel right now is longevity.

That may be enough to keep him above Tennessee football’s head coach in rankings, but not 15 spots. It’s certainly not enough to outweigh every other reason when comparing who’s more likely to win a national title first. Perception often clouds reality. When it comes to Kiffin, that’s been the case for years.