Tennessee football would underachieve with CFN’s 2022 projections

Projections across the nation for different teams continue to roll in by various outlets, and there’s clearly an aura of cautious optimism surrounding Tennessee football. It’s partially due to what Josh Heupel is building, but it also has to do with the make-up of the Vols’ schedule.

Last Friday, Pete Fiutak of College Football News released his 2022 preview for the Vols, and the outlet subsequently released the team’s top 10 players. That top 10 list was pretty predictable, with Hendon Hooker at No. 1 and tons of familiar names elsewhere, even if it’s disagreeable.

Fiutak’s key game of the year for Tennessee football was also obvious, as he mentioned the Florida Gators, which if the Vols can’t beat this year, they’ll never beat them again. However, his projected win total is a bit concerning, as he set it at eight. Here’s the explanation.

"At Pitt, Kentucky, at South Carolina. Optimistic Tennessee fans will expect 3-0 against that, realistic ones will hope for 2-1, but 1-2 is possible and 0-3 would be disastrous.Beating Florida would be massive, shocking Alabama at home and/or at Georgia would season-defining, and taking out LSU on the road would be gigantic. 2-2 makes this a big year, 1-3 is more likely."

Make no mistake, given the makeup of the schedule, 8-4 would be disappointing. Losing to any of the teams among the Pittsburgh Panthers, Kentucky Wildcats and South Carolina Gamecocks would be a letdown. Pitt lost Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison, so its passing game is gone.

Meanwhile, the Vols beat UK on the road last year, and they blew out South Carolina. As a result, everything in the world suggests they should be able to beat both teams this year, even if South Carolina is on the road.

Now, looking at the Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs and LSU Tigers along with Florida, he’s right. Going 1-3 seems more likely, but 2-2 is the goal. Alabama and Georgia are acceptable losses. In spite of everything that’s transpired the past 17 years, Florida should be a win.

Let’s go as far as to say a loss to Florida, when the Vols have them at home while transitioning to a new head coach, would be as disappointing as losing to Pitt, Kentucky or South Carolina. It should be that guaranteed of a win this year.

That leaves Tennessee football’s matchup with LSU to determine whether or not the team goes 1-3 or 2-2. Although the game is on the road, LSU is transitioning themselves to a new head coach in Brian Kelly, so this is the Vols’ best chance in years to steal a game against them.

Taking that into account, 9-3 should be the bare minimum for this team, and 10-2 should be on the table. Although they could lose one game to Pitt, Kentucky and South Carolina, the hope is that they are as likely to win all three and beat LSU as they are to lose one and lose to LSU.

Like everybody else, Fiutak has circled the three non-Power Five games as wins along with the Vanderbilt Commodores and Missouri Tigers. As a result, it comes down to those seven other games, and it’s really five since Bama and Georgia should be circled losses.

It’s not that Fiutak is wrong with this take. The problem is that if it happens, Tennessee football hasn’t taken the step forward everybody hoped it had taken under Josh Heupel. As a result, hitting this most likely projection and not outdoing it will be an underachieving year.