Tennessee basketball paradox on display in updated KenPom program ratings

Thanks the the consistency Rick Barnes has built as head coach of Tennessee basketball, the Vols continue to rise in the KenPom program ratings. They have risen three spots to No. 19 in the updated rankings thanks to their highest single-season rating ever this past year, No. 9.

The ratings track the success of a program over a period of time and include factors like conference affiliation, recruiting rankings and success over a period of time with more weight towards recency. Coming off an SEC Tournament Championship and second straight top 10 class, it’s easy to see how UT made the list.

However, there’s a huge paradox involving Tennessee basketball. These ratings use data back to 1997. UT is the highest ranked team in these ratings to never make a Final Four during that time. They became that by surpassing the Purdue Boilermakers, who remained at No. 21.

When you look at Purdue, though, an even crazier picture is painted. The Boilermakers have at least made two Final Fours in history, most recently being in 1980. Rocky Top is the only top 25 team to have never made the Final Four in history.

Joining the Vols in the top 30 are the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Xavier Musketeers, but they come in at No. 29 and No. 30 respectively. Simply put, it’s insane that the Vols have the track record to be in the top 20 despite never reaching the Final Four.

Of course, what’s different between now and 1997, when they finished ranked No. 158, is that they have gone from a team that was a bottom of the barrel SEC program in the mid to late 1990s to one that competes but always underachieves in the NCAA Tournament. It’s been a problem.

Things for Tennessee basketball really changed when Jerry Green took over in 1997-1998. Since that year, they have made 15 NCAA Tournament appearances in 25 seasons, and it’s really 24 since the COVID-shortened 2019-2020 season canceled the NCAA Tournament.

In those 15 tournaments, they were eliminated by a lower seed 10 times. Part of that is due to Barnes’ bad history of underachieving in the tournament, and Green had the same issue. All eight of the tournaments both of them coached the Vols in, they lost to a lower seed.

Still, this explains how the Vols could be so high in the KenPom ratings but still have a worse overall track record than other teams surrounding them in postseason play. They just constantly have a tendency to flame out in the tournament. There’s a reason this team has made one Elite Eight appearance.

Now, good news may be on the horizon. Tennessee basketball had the same curse in the SEC Tournament but finally got over that hump this year, winning the title for the first time since 1979. That was a bigger curse than the NCAA Tournament.

As a result, the Vols could be in line to exorcise more curses going forward. One Final Four appearance would shoot this team up the KenPom ratings, and a national championship would validate this program, which has accomplished so many other things.