Why Tennessee football should worry about updated ESPN FPI for 2022 and take it seriously

Most preseason projections can be taken with a grain of salt. However, one approach is completely analytical, and if you look at its track record, it doesn’t bode well for Tennessee football entering Josh Heupel’s second season on the job.

The updated ESPN Football Power Index has the Vols ranked No. 25 for the 2022 season. On paper, that would seem fine. Here’s the problem: five of the teams on their schedule this year are ranked ahead of them.

Rocky Top is behind the Pittsburgh Panthers (No. 20), the Kentucky Wildcats (No. 18), the LSU Tigers (No. 10), the Georgia Bulldogs (No. 3) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 1). As a result, the outlet also projects almost right at a 7-5 record for Tennessee football.

You can dismiss this as nothing, but the FPI has been astonishingly accurate regarding the Vols in the past, particularly after it was updated. In fact, they might have surpassed Phil Steele, who had the best read on the Vols in the first decade of the 2000s.

With everybody betting against a decent season for UT last year, the FPI came in and set their win total at 6.6 for the regular season, so the closest whole number was seven. They went 7-5 before losing the Music City Bowl, so that prediction was almost spot on.

Let’s rewind to 2019. Tennessee football was projected to go 9-3 that year and only lose to the Florida Gators, Georgia and Alabama. They would have only lost those games had a couple of key injuries not cost them two big upset losses at home to the Georgia State Panthers and BYU Cougars to open the season.

Entering 2020, after a six-game winning streak to finish 2019, the Vols were a top 25 team across all services. However, with the all-SEC schedule due to COVID, they were projected to go 4-6, and they actually finished 3-7, so only one game off.

Taking this into account, yes, you should worry about this ranking. Fans are hoping for a huge step forward in Josh Heupel’s second season, upwards of nine or 10 wins, and this isn’t suggesting that. When you consider the layout of the schedule, it’s worse.

Of the five teams ahead of the Vols, three of them are road opponents in Pitt, LSU and Georgia. Alabama is at home, but they’re No. 1, so that’s too much of a disparity. That makes Kentucky the only feasible beatable team on that list for the Vols based on data.

So how does that shake out to each individual game? Well, the Vols have a below 50 percent chance to beat every team ranked ahead of them, including Kentucky, where they are at 47.4 percent. As a result, a repeat of 7-5 seems on the table.

You could dismiss that by saying UT owns Kentucky, but then you’d have to do the same with Florida, whom Rocky Top has a 60.2 percent chance of beating at home. Swap those two games out, and you still end up with a 7-5 record.

If you want to get real concerned, Tennessee football also has only a 55 percent chance to beat the South Carolina Gamecocks. As a result, 6-6 or even 5-7 is on the table. That could turn this into a disastrous season that nobody expected.

However they have a greater than 75 percent chance against five of their foes, and they are above the 40s for three more, so 8-4 is still very possible. Also, hey, LSU does have a new coach, so you could up the Vols’ chances from 37 percent to win. Still, all of this has to be concerning, and fans should take it seriously.