Tennessee football: Why Citrus Bowl is a realistic projection for Vols

You could see why many people believe Tennessee football will have a good second year under Josh Heupel. However, a good second year is potentially turning into the best season in over 20 years for the Vols based on some of the projections.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports fits that mold with his bowl projections. He is the second analyst to have UT going to the Citrus Bowl, the best non-New Years Six bowl game for the SEC. In his projection, the Vols would face the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Last month, we wrote about the range of bowl projections for Tennessee football, as they include the Liberty Bowl, the Outback Bowl and the Citrus Bowl. However, the Citrus Bowl is the one where two outlets project the Vols to go, as Athlon also has them going there.

For context, UT hasn’t gone to the Citrus Bowl since 2001. That’s the last time the Vols won 11 games and lost fewer than three games. It’s also the last time they finished in the top 10, as they finished ranked No. 4.

Beyond both of those things, it’s the last time they were in the national championship hunt in November as well. Simply put, the Citrus Bowl usually means you are a major factor in any sort of title race even if you didn’t end up making it in.

The Vols went to the Citrus Bowl in 1993, 1995 and 1996 as well. It actually became a disappointing bowl for them because it was the result of them constantly losing to the Florida Gators, leading Steve Spurrier to say you can’t spell Citrus without UT.

So what would lead analysts to project UT to the Citrus Bowl now? Well, to be fair, the bowl isn’t what it was back then. After all, those three appearances in the 1990s were before the BCS, so the second best SEC team went almost no matter what.

Often times, the Big Ten co-champion went to the Citrus Bowl. Indeed, in 1996, the Vols’ opponent, the Northwestern Wildcats, shared the title with the Ohio State Buckeyes. The bowl carried that level of prestige

Then, Tennessee football’s appearance in the 2001 Citrus Bowl was when the BCS still only had eight teams with six automatic bids, and the Vols were the first team out. The BCS moved to having 10 teams, still with six automatic bids in 2006, and now with the New Years Six, there are12 teams with six automatic bids.

As a result, normally the third or fourth best SEC team goes to the Citrus Bowl rather than the second best. In the case of the Vols, that means going 9-3 or even 8-4 could get them there depending on what happens with the rest of the SEC.

Even if you consider the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs circled losses, they have a bunch of toss-up games that lean in their favor, including Florida, the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Kentucky Wildcats. The Pittsburgh Panthers and LSU Tigers slightly lean the other way.

Still, 3-2 in those games is a realistic approach, and that’s where 8-4 could come in. Also, many analysts are projecting Tennessee football to upset either Alabama or Georgia, and that would get them to 9-3, meaning an automatic bid. Is it ambitious? Yes. However, it is possible.