Tennessee football: Will SP+ or FPI be more accurate in 2022?
All we know for sure about Tennessee football this year is, well, that we don’t know much. Last year, a bowl appearance and at or just barely above .500 was clearly the max for the Vols, and that’s what they pulled off, going 7-6 in Josh Heupel’s first season.
However, this year, the range goes from 5-7, which was on the table last year, to 10-2 and even competing for SEC Championships. That range has shown in the analytics too. ESPN’s two key formulas for predicting success have been wildly different for the Vols this year.
In the network’s SP+ projections, which factor in returning talent, recent history and recent success in recruiting and the transfer portal, Tennessee football comes in at No. 10. However, they are down at No. 24 in the Football Power Index.
Now, that may not seem like a huge range, but given how elite their schedule is, it could be a difference of up to three wins. If the formula held, the Vols would be looking at 7-5 in FPI play and at minimum 9-3, possibly 10-2, in SP+. Obviously, Vol fans want the SP+ to be more accurate.
Which one is right, though? Well, luckily we can look back in history to determine that. Last year, SP+ got the edge. With low expectations across the board for the Vols, SP+ had them ahead of seven teams on their regular season schedule. They won all seven. Five teams were ahead of them. All five beat them. and below five.
Meanwhile, the FPI had them going 6-6. However, ironically, it had them beating the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road while losing to the Missouri Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats. Obviously, UT lost to Pitt but blew out Mizzou and held off Kentucky.
What about 2020? Well, that one favored the FPI. Tennessee football was ranked No. 19 in SP+ that year and projected to go 5-5 with the 10-game schedule. They finished 3-7, losing every game they were expected to lose plus falling to Kentucky and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Meanwhile, in Jeremy Pruitt’s final season, the Vols were projected to go 4-6 in the FPI. To be fair, though, they weren’t accurate with those picks. For instance, they were projected to lose to the South Carolina Gamecocks but beat Kentucky and Arkansas. The reverse happened.
As for 2019, both completely missed the mark for the Vols. Neither had them losing their first two games to the Georgia State Panthers and BYU Cougars. To be fair, the FPI was spot on after that, as they had the Vols going 9-3, only losing to the Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide.
Those are the only teams they lost to the rest of the way. The SP+ was technically more accurate with the Vols at No. 26 and six teams ahead of them. Obviously, their 7-5 regular season record was closer to 6-6 than it was to 9-3.
However, they had Georgia State and BYU way below them, and they had the Vols way below South Carolina, the Missouri Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, three teams they beat that year. So even though the FPI was technically less accurate, they probably nailed that a bit more.
Next. Predicting every game on Vols' 2022 schedule. dark
Altogether, if you take those three years into account, the FPI gets the edge twice. However, SP+ in 2021 was so much more accurate than the FPI that last year’s season is the only noticeable gap. Thats’ a good sign for Tennessee football, as they would prefer the SP+ this year, but only playing the season will confirm this.