Tennessee football has long way to go before celebrating 12-team playoff

Friday’s news that the College Football Playoff would expand to 12 teams as late as 2026 and maybe as early as 2024 was cause for a lot of schools to celebrate. Tennessee football is not yet in a position to be one of those schools, though.

The format will involve the top six conference champions and the six best teams outside of that. Four teams will receive a first-round bye. Teams No. 5 through 12 will play the first round with the higher seeds at home, and bowls will rotate as hosts of the quarterfinals and semifinals.

As has been the case for the four-team CFP, the national championship will be played at a random location. The expanded playoff certainly increases Tennessee football’s chances of making it. They have to take multiple steps first.

Remember, even with the playoff expanded to 12 teams, the last time the Vols would have made it was 2003. Only in 2004, 2005 and 2007 would they have even been in contention in November since then. They never would have been in the race for it since firing Phillip Fulmer.

Sure, in 2015 and 2016, they finished in the top 25. That was only due to their bowl game performances, as they entered postseason play both times unranked. To be fair, they would’ve been in the race in mid-October in 2016, but the late-season collapse under Butch Jones would’ve knocked them out of it.

We’re talking about a program that has had eight losing seasons over the past 14 years. Three other times, they finished 7-6. They have lost their last 15 games to the Alabama Crimson Tide and 16 of 17 to both Alabama and the Florida Gators.

Taking all of that into account, Tennessee football shouldn’t focus on the CFP right now. There are multiple steps the Vols need to take under Josh Heupel first before the prospect of reaching the expanded playoff becomes a possibility.

First, they should obviously focus on returning to the top 25 and staying there. That could be a possibility sooner rather than later depending on how the rest of 2022 goes. What happened in their opener was a good start.

Second, though, they should be in competition to at least win the SEC East. Even when the playoff does expand, it’s not going to be relevant to teams that can’t even compete in their division, so UT has to worry about being competitive with Florida and the Georgia Bulldogs.

Of course, before that, they need to make sure they return to running the table against teams like the Vanderbilt Commodores. That has returned in recent years, but if they slip back to what they were doing in the mid-2010s, playoff talk will certainly be irrelevant.

To be fair, Tennessee football has plenty of time before playoff contention is even a thing. This is the program’s second year under Josh Heupel, and the 12-team playoff won’t arrive until Heupel’s fourth year at a minimum, maybe his sixth.

If Heupel does have success with the program, then it’ll obviously be clear by the time the playoff arrives. However, before getting there, Heupel and the Vols have to focus on getting past a few other hurdles first. For now, CFP talk is irrelevant on Rocky Top.